The past two seasons, I have written an 8-part divisional series piece titled “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer”. As we approach the 2020 season, it’s time for the third annual installment of this series.
In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify two guys I am buying, two I’m selling, and a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of your drafts and in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.
We continue the 2020 “Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer” Series with the NFC North.
Chicago Bears
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – DECEMBER 02: Tarik Cohen #29 of the Chicago Bears returns a punt during the first quarter against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 02, 2018 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) 2020 Buy Sell Take the Flyer – NFC North
Two Players I Am Buying
Tarik Cohen – Overall ADP 87 RB35
Regression hit Tarik Cohen in a big, bad way in 2019. His touches dropped by just under two a game, and his touchdowns regressed from eight down to three. In addition to the decrease in touches was the decrease in productivity. He dropped to 3.3 YPC, and far more importantly his receiving plummeted from 10.2 yards per reception to 5.8. The 10.2 in 2019 wasn’t going to be repeated, but the near 50% drop in productivity was certainly more than expected.
Cohen still projects to be a nice addition to the offense and is a nice back to target in PPR. Finding a RB that has been targeted 195 times in the past two seasons in the 7th round is great value. I expect the Bears offense to be more productive as a whole in 2020. Chicago was 25th in passing yards in 2019 compared to 21st in 2018, and 29th in points scored compared to 9th in 2018. Cohen likely will not give you the RB11 season he did in 2018, but I do expect him to better the RB27 a year ago and his ADP of RB35.
Anthony Miller – Overall ADP 135 WR50
Anthony Miller has a ton of talent and a great amount of work ethic. Will can defeat skill, and when combined good things tend to happen. The problem Miller encountered last season was that he was slowed by both injury and a Mitch Trubisky problem. In 2020, if he remains healthy, year three has all the makings of a breakout season.
In his rookie season, while playing through a shoulder injury the entire year, Miller finished as WR60 with 7 touchdowns. In 2019, he struggled the majority of the season and finished as WR56, but it was the finish to his season that has me this optimistic. From Weeks 12-16, Miller was WR17 and averaging 15.6 PPR points a game. With (hopefully) improved quarterback play from Nick Foles, Miller is a complete steal at his ADP of WR54. The upside of Anthony Miller in an improved Chicago offense is impossible to pass up.
Two Players I Am Selling
Allen Robinson – Overall ADP 29 WR9
In 2019, Allen Robinson was once again an elite WR. Robinson finished the year as WR8 with 254.9 PPR points. His 154 targets and his 98 receptions were both career highs. His 1,147 yards and 7 touchdowns were second only to his 1,400 yard 14 touchdown 2015 season. Robinson will still just be 27 years old when the season starts. The Nick Foles / Mitch Trubisky combo at QB is not ideal,