AI FX Bot Lab: Real Trading Experiments

A 93.3% Win Rate Still Wasn’t Enough


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Four MT5 bot trade log for June 30, 2026

The strange part of today was not that the portfolio lost money. The strange part was that one bot won 14 out of 15 closed trades and the four-bot total still finished at -974 yen. I had to look at that twice, because a 93.3% win rate usually feels like the kind of number you want to keep. Today it was only enough to keep GateGrid AI green, not enough to save the whole board.

The real theme was not entry accuracy. It was payoff ratio and max loss. Across all four bots, the average win was about 68 yen while the average loss was about 255 yen. That gap is not dramatic on one trade, but after 33 closed trades it starts to explain the day better than the win rate does.

Bot-by-bot results

■ GateGrid AI +442 yenPair: GBPUSD-Record: 14W / 1LWin rate: 93.3%Gross profit: +775 yenGross loss: -333 yenPayoff ratio: 0.17Max loss: -333 yen

■ BoundSniper Bot -755 yenPair: USDJPY-Record: 5W / 3LWin rate: 62.5%Gross profit: +436 yenGross loss: -1,191 yenPayoff ratio: 0.22Max loss: -771 yen

■ LLMBridgeTrader -410 yenPair: EURUSD-Record: 4W / 5LWin rate: 44.4%Gross profit: +360 yenGross loss: -770 yenPayoff ratio: 0.58Max loss: -206 yen

■ MLScore GF-T4 GB -251 yenPair: GBPJPY-Record: 0W / 1LWin rate: 0.0%Gross profit: +0 yenGross loss: -251 yenPayoff ratio: 0.00Max loss: -251 yen

■ Total -974 yenPairs: GBPUSD- / USDJPY- / EURUSD- / GBPJPY-Record: 23W / 10LWin rate: 69.7%Gross profit: +1,571 yenGross loss: -2,545 yenPayoff ratio: 0.27Max loss: -771 yen

Today’s theme

Today was a clean reminder that a bot can be right often and still be fragile. GateGrid AI did the best job on the surface. It kept taking small GBPUSD wins, and most of those exits looked like the kind of grind a grid-style system is built for. But the payoff ratio was only 0.17, so the single -333 yen loss mattered a lot more than the win count made it feel. Seeing +775 yen of gross profit get cut down that quickly made me pause a little.

BoundSniper Bot had a different problem. It won more than it lost by count, but the first closed loss came in at -771 yen including swap. That one number bent the entire day. Since BoundSniper is mainly the execution bridge for TradingView signals rather than a prediction engine, I do not read this as an MT5 delivery issue. The problem sits closer to the signal and exit design.

LLMBridgeTrader was more interesting from the LLM experiment side. The losses were not huge individually, and the payoff ratio of 0.58 was the best among the losing bots. Still, it lost five of nine closed trades. When a bot is allowed to decide OPEN, HOLD, CLOSE, or REVERSE, the exit is not a small detail. It is the experiment.

GateGrid AI

GateGrid AI was the only clear winner today, finishing at +442 yen on GBPUSD-. Fourteen wins and one loss is a strong result, but I do not want to over-celebrate it. The average win was about 55 yen, while the only loss was -333 yen. That means one bad exit was roughly six average wins.

The design did what it is supposed to do in one sense. It kept finding small harvests and avoided ending red. CatBoost and the local LLM filter are meant to reduce bad entries, and today the entry side looked decent. But the exit side still carries the risk. If the bot keeps a losing grid alive too long, the day can flip quickly.

The uncomfortable lesson is that GateGrid AI may need to stay extremely selective. A win rate around 70% would not be enough with this payoff structure. Even 80% could be shaky. Today it survived because 93.3% is a very high bar, and that is not something I want to depend on every session.

BoundSniper Bot

BoundSniper Bot finished at -755 yen realized, with a separate open USDJPY short showing -90 yen floating loss at the report close. The closed-trade win rate was 62.5%, which sounds acceptable until the loss distribution shows up. The max loss was -771 yen, and another loss came in at -416 yen. The small wins, from +30 to +256 yen, could not repair that.

This bot does not think through the market by itself. It receives TradingView signals and sends them to MT5. So when it loses this way, I look less at the transport layer and more at whether the TradingView-side exit is late, too wide, or too tolerant of reversal.

The -771 yen loss is the number that bothered me most today. Not because it is huge in absolute terms, but because it tells me the bot can let one trade become the whole story. That is the part I would want to isolate before adjusting anything cosmetic.

LLMBridgeTrader

LLMBridgeTrader ended at -410 yen on EURUSD-. The bot had four wins and five losses, so it was not completely off, but it never found enough clean follow-through. The best thing in the data is that its max loss was -206 yen, much smaller than BoundSniper’s worst loss. The worse part is that it kept leaking.

For an LLM-driven bot, I care less about whether one entry was clever and more about whether the model knows when to stop believing its first plan. Today, the exit decisions look mixed. Some losses were cut in a controlled range, but the sequence still says the bot was too willing to re-engage or stay wrong.

The payoff ratio of 0.58 is not terrible compared with the other bots, but with a 44.4% win rate it was not enough. It needs either cleaner filtering before entry or better switching behavior after the position starts moving against the thesis. My guess is that the exit prompt and the HOLD-to-CLOSE threshold are more important than adding another indicator.

MLScore GF-T4 GB

MLScore GF-T4 GB had only one closed trade, a GBPJPY loss of -251 yen. That is too little data to judge the model. One stop-out can be noise, and I do not want to build a whole story around a single trade.

Still, the clean loss is useful as a record. It did not snowball, and it did not stack positions. On a day where max loss shaped the portfolio, a single controlled loss is not the worst thing a bot can do.

The next check is whether this bot tends to produce isolated losses or whether it clusters them. Today only tells me that the first attempt failed. I need more samples before I trust any conclusion.

Wrap-up

The total came in at -974 yen realized, even with a 69.7% combined win rate. That is the kind of day that makes the dashboard feel misleading if I only look at green and red trade counts. The bots were not all broken. The problem was that the losing trades were much heavier than the winning trades.

For tomorrow, I would not start with the entries. I would start with the exits: BoundSniper’s worst-loss rule, LLMBridgeTrader’s CLOSE judgment, and GateGrid AI’s point of giving up on a grid. The trade log is saying one thing pretty clearly today: the bots can find wins, but the exits still decide whether those wins survive.



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AI FX Bot Lab: Real Trading ExperimentsBy Kimi | Japan FX Bot Lab