IFPRI-AMIS Seminar Series | IFPRI Policy Seminar

A Narrow Strait, Global Consequences: Hormuz Strait and Fertilizer Markets

Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)

April 23, 2026

Fertilizer markets have entered a phase of heightened uncertainty, where geopolitical risks intersect with highly concentrated production, energy dependence, and fragile logistics. These risks are no longer hypothetical. The Strait of Hormuz represents a critical chokepoint for fertilizer trade, with around 35 percent of global urea flows, over one quarter of ammonia trade, just above 20 percent of phosphates, and roughly 45 percent of global sulfur exports transiting the Strait. Ongoing restrictions on maritime traffic through Hormuz underscore its role as a key pressure point in global fertilizer supply chains. Even partial or temporary disruptions can reverberate through markets, while a prolonged or intensified disruption would pose serious challenges for securing adequate nutrient supplies ahead of future cropping seasons. Moreover, even in the event of an easing or reopening, restarting production, logistical normalization, and contract re‑alignment would take time, delaying a full recovery in supply flows.

This IFPRI-AMIS seminar looks ahead to assess how fertilizer markets may evolve under these conditions. Drawing on the latest market intelligence and trade analysis, speakers will examine transmission channels from constrained shipping and elevated insurance risks to energy‑driven production costs, price volatility, and regional supply vulnerabilities. The discussion will focus on implications for major importing regions, risks to fertilizer affordability and application decisions, and potential knock‑on effects for agricultural production and food security, as well as policy and market responses to strengthen preparedness in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

Opening Remarks

Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary

Landscape of Fertilizer Markets

Delphine Leconte-Demarsy, Fertilizer consultant, Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)

Changes in Fertilizer Trade Flows

Shawn Arita, Associate Director and Associate Research Professor, Agricultural Risk Policy Center, North Dakota State University (NDSU)

Panel Discussion

Africa: Maria Wanzala, Director of Policy, African Fertilizer and Agribusiness Partnership (AFAP)

Brazil: Joana Colussi, Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University

India: Shalender Singh, Chief Manager, Marketing, Krishak Bharati Cooperative Limited

United States: Veronica Nigh, Chief Economist, The Fertilizer Institute

Concluding Remarks

Joseph Glauber, Research Fellow Emeritus, IFPRI

More about this Event: https://www.ifpri.org/event/a-narrow-strait-global-consequences-hormuz-strait-and-fertilizer-markets/

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