In this episode of Justified Posteriors, we tackle the provocative essay “The Intelligence Curse” by Luke Drago and Rudolf Laine. What if AI is less like a productivity booster and more like oil in a failed state? Drawing from economics, political theory, and dystopian sci-fi, we explore the analogy between AI-driven automation and the classic resource curse.

* [00:03:30] Introducing The Intelligence Curse – A speculative essay that blends LessWrong rationalism, macroeconomic theory, and political pessimism.

* [00:07:55] Running through the six economic mechanisms behind the curse, including volatility, Dutch disease, and institutional decay.

* [00:13:10] Prior #1: Will AI-enabled automation make elites less responsive to ordinary people by 2050?

* [00:21:00] Prior #2: Will we get a new social contract (e.g., large-scale UBI or constitutional change) by 2050?

* [00:26:31] Chapter-by-chapter breakdown.

* [00:43:50] What about property rights? Can they insulate us from AI-induced tyranny? Or will they be eroded in the name of efficiency?

* [00:46:01] Critiques

* [00:52:00] Policy "solutions":

* [01:04:44] Final posteriors and Seth’s economic-philosophical reflections: Can immortality + perfect patience = AI capital monopolies?

Mentioned in the Episode📖 “The Intelligence Curse” by Luke Drago and Rudolf Laine📚 I Have No Mouth and I Must Scream📚 There Is No Antimemetics Division📚 The Naked Sun by Isaac Asimov🎮 90s point-and-click horror game based on “I Have No Mouth...”📈 Sachs & Warner (1995) and Frankel (2012) on the resource curse.🔁 The Gatsby Curve📽️ Gattaca, 1984, Gulliver’s Travels

Support the show: Please like, share, subscribe!

Get full access to Justified Posteriors at empiricrafting.substack.com/subscribe