In this excerpt from A Spy’s Guide to Taking Risks, John Braddock shares real-life spy experiences to introduce a practical framework for assessing and managing risks. By building simple models of cause and effect, using “AND” and “OR” operators, readers learn to identify necessary conditions and potential substitutes in both hazardous and advantageous scenarios. Braddock demonstrates how strategic thinking can reduce risks to zero by eliminating critical conditions or, when impossible, by layering low-probability events and crafting reliable fallback plans. This engaging guide blends analytical techniques, real-world insights, and adaptability for mastering risk in high-stakes situations.