The Trump-Xi summit was about two things: China getting Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and America expressing its relaxation at the idea of the People’s Liberation Army crossing the Strait of Formosa. Something I talked about on yesterday’s BBC Arabic spot, which I haven’t developed here, is related to nuclear proliferation in the Western Pacific: the overture for the Putin-Xi summit was a fairly huge nuclear forces exercise involving Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, the Russian Northern Fleet (do they still have the Order of the Red Banner?) and the Russian Pacific Fleet. The fact that I know about this exercise shows that everyone knows about this exercise, and it was intended to demonstrate to all of us that Russia is a nuclear-armed superpower, and that their temporary inability to conduct successful operations in Ukraine or to support allies in the Middle East is irrelevant to that superpower thing.

Cast this against:

* China’s understanding that one day Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin won’t be President of Russia, there will be instability during a secession period, and China will take advantage of the moment; and

* The rational response of nuclear-capable states during the American Recessional to the Western Hemisphere intended by the Trump Administration, will be to say, ‘we’d better get a bomb’.

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