Access to Alpha

Ian Venzon with Pence Capital Management recaps why the 2026 midterms may create political noise, but unless they materially change the outlook for earnings or AI investment, investors are likely better served by staying focused on fundamentals rather than election results.

The S&P 500 managed to post another quarterly gain, but investors may be wondering if the market is really playing its best game. Portfolio Manager Anthony Brooks examines why large-cap technology did most of the heavy lifting, why higher rates and tougher questions around AI are raising the stakes, and why strong earnings may not be enough to keep the market’s winning streak alive.

Liridon Gila, Portfolio Manager, breaks down August’s S&P 500 rally and the rotation away from semiconductor concentration toward the quality factor and enterprise software. He dives into the big macro drivers shaping the landscape—from a hawkish Fed stance at Jackson Hole to the sustainability of historic AI capital expenditures driving strong earnings growth.

Equity markets took pause in July as investor concerns about AI spending and the eventual path of interest rates left investors more uncertain about the continued pace of gains. Marc Davis, CFA discusses the factors that drove market action in the month and the outlook going forward. 

We are pleased to present this five-minute podcast featuring Ian Venzon, Assistant Vice President at Pence Capital Management (PCM), highlighting how markets have continued to perform strongly despite economic and geopolitical headwinds.

KEY TAKEAWAYS:

• Despite a challenging backdrop, the S&P 500 Index reached record highs in the first half of 2026, with broad-based gains across global markets.
• Through June, the S&P 500 gained more than 8% as earnings expectations rose over 20%, supported in part by nearly $750 billion in additional AI-related capital investment.
• As we enter Q3, strong earnings, lower oil prices, a stabilizing labor market, and supportive tax policy provide a favorable backdrop for investors heading into the midterms.

John Gomez, President and Co-founder of Brentview Investment Management, joins the latest Access to Alpha Podcast to discuss the similarities between 2025 and early 2026 markets and why stock selection, particularly in AI-related companies, is becoming increasingly important.

As fixed income investors reassess their portfolio allocations, Erin Spalsbury, Head of Investment Grade at Insight Investment highlights her expectations both near-term and into 2027:

• Volatility likely to remain elevated given the number of macro uncertainties 
• Federal Reserve expected to remain on hold near term, with potential cuts later in the year or into 2027 dependent upon the impact and duration of high energy prices
• Higher-for-longer rates supportive of intermediate fixed income overall, with selection and risk management particularly important in this uncertain environment. 

Ian Venzon, AVP at Pence Capital Management explores the economic implications of recent developments in Iran and offers his expectations for the U.S. markets.  

• Escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran have contributed to upward pressure on global oil prices. Despite this, the US economy has become less sensitive to oil shocks over time.
• Consumer spending on gasoline has steadily declined, which is muting traditional fuel demand despite periods of price volatility.
• The dominant driver behind strong earnings expectations and overall equity market resilience remains artificial intelligence, with major players viewing this as the strategic arms race.

With markets reacting to the onset of the Iran war, we invited Gene Peroni of Peroni Portfolio Advisors to the Access to Alpha podcast series where he put today’s volatility in perspective and offered his thoughts on what may lie ahead.

3 Key Takeaways:

1. Investors ought to focus on longer-term trends, as opposed to often short-lived, event-triggered corrections.
2. Since October 2025, many traditional cyclicals began leading while Technology corrected … until recently. 
3. Gene views the recent pullback as constructive (and arguably overdue) as it reined in price and sentiment excesses and positions the market to build support at incrementally higher levels. 

We invite you to listen to Erin Spalsbury, Head of Investment Grade at Insight Investment, as she shares her expectations for 2026 and select areas worth watching. In short, Insight is focused on managing risk while seeking consistent income and long-term value.