Part 1 of our NFL preview, the NFL brands and fanbases analysis, looked at which teams have the best fanbases. Today we begin discussing where the NFL is going in 2022. Our NFL projections are based on a forecast of team performance and a subjective assessment of each team’s quarterback’s storylines.

The team win forecast is primarily driven by a new advanced QB metric called QB Wins. The QB Wins metric is something that Mike has been working on for a decent amount of time. The QB Wins metric is computed using a wide range of raw data (TD passes, interceptions, yards, etc.), expert statistics (passer rating, QBR), and non-QB data (defense stats, rushing, etc.). The algorithm leverages the correlations and differences between these data sources to separate out QB, running game, and defensive performance. A second statistical analysis estimates the relationship between quarterback performance factors (and defensive and rushing factors) and team performance (wins). The result is a QB metric that identifies how much a player contributes to his team's record in a given year.

In this podcast, Mike forecasts each AFC East team’s 2022 record using the QB Wins metric - with particular attention paid to changes in the QB position.

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