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After Taiwan: The World as Part of China? EP120-4(Part2)↑《Sip&Talk》 |Sunny & Joe


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中國自古有「四夷朝貢」與「天下大一統」的思想,在習近平時代,這種思想與民族復興情懷重新興起,可能導致進一步影響外部世界的企圖。
類比歷史上的相似敘事擴張:
[國家名義主張實際意圖或後果]
俄羅斯「烏東地區都是俄語區人民!」併吞克里米亞、侵略烏克蘭納粹!
德國「蘇台德地區是德意志民族的土地」入侵捷克後啟動全面戰爭!
北韓「整個朝鮮半島都是我們的」長年對南韓文攻武嚇、未放棄統一夢!

官方是否會改變敘事並擴大「收復」目標?

  1. 改變敘事的可能性
  2. 若台灣被成功「統一」,中國官方很可能調整其宣傳焦點,從「完成祖國統一」轉向更廣泛的「復興中華」目標。這種轉變可能伴隨新的歷史詮釋,將其他爭議地區(如南海、東海,甚至更遠的邊疆)納入「需要收復」的範圍。例如:
  • 南海:強化「九段線」內島礁的主權主張,稱其為「自古以來」的領土。
  • 釣魚島(尖閣諸島):將與日本的爭端提升為「收復失地」的正義之戰。
  • 邊疆地區:如外蒙古或俄羅斯遠東某些歷史上曾受中國影響的區域,可能被重新提起(儘管現實中挑戰俄羅斯的可能性極低)。
  1. 擴大目標的動機
  • 民族主義的慣性:成功拿下台灣可能讓政府與民眾信心大增,認為「歷史使命」尚未結束。這種慣性可能推動官方尋找新的「敵人」或「目標」來維持動員力。
  • 地緣戰略需求:控制台灣後,中國在第一島鏈的突破可能使其更有底氣挑戰第二島鏈(如關島),進一步擴大海上影響力。
  • 內部統治需要:若國內經濟或社會壓力增加,政府可能通過外部「勝利」轉移焦點,擴大「收復」範圍以強化合法性。
  1. 敘事轉變的具體形式
  2. 官方可能會從「收復台灣是終點」轉向「收復台灣是起點」的論述。例如,宣傳中可能出現這樣的說法:「台灣回歸只是第一步,中華民族的偉大復興還需要收復所有屬於我們的領土和尊嚴。」這種話語會搭配歷史論述(如「明朝的海上霸權」或「清朝的疆域」),將擴張包裝為「正當回歸」。


假設中國拿下台灣,其是否繼續擴張取決於內外因素的平衡:內部是否需要更多「勝利」來鞏固政權?國際社會的反制是否可控?中國不太可能直接「佔領全世界」,但其影響力的擴展(經濟、軍事、文化)可能讓人感受到威脅。與俄羅斯一樣,中國將自己的行動合理化為「正義」,但這種正義的定義深受其歷史經驗與意識形態驅動,與外部世界的認知存在明顯落差。

Since ancient times, China has held the concepts of "tributes from the four barbarian tribes" and "grand unification of the world." In the era of Xi Jinping, these ideas, combined with the sentiment of national rejuvenation, have resurfaced, potentially leading to ambitions of further influencing the external world.
Analogies to historical expansions of similar narratives:

[National claims asserting actual intentions or consequences]

  • Russia: "The eastern Ukraine regions are all Russian-speaking people!" – Annexation of Crimea and invasion of Ukraine under the pretext of fighting Nazis!
  • Germany: "The Sudetenland is the land of the German nation!" – Invasion of Czechoslovakia followed by the launch of full-scale war!
  • North Korea: "The entire Korean Peninsula belongs to us!" – Decades of verbal attacks and military intimidation against South Korea, never abandoning the dream of unification!


Will the official narrative change and expand "reclamation" targets?
Possibility of Changing the Narrative
If Taiwan is successfully "unified," the Chinese government is likely to shift its propaganda focus from "completing the unification of the motherland" to the broader goal of "rejuvenating the Chinese nation." This shift may be accompanied by new historical interpretations, incorporating other disputed regions (such as the South China Sea, the East China Sea, or even more distant frontiers) into the scope of territories "needing reclamation." For example:

  • South China Sea: Strengthening sovereignty claims over islands within the "nine-dash line," labeling them as "territory since ancient times."
  • Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku Islands): Elevating the dispute with Japan into a "just war to reclaim lost land."
  • Frontier Regions: Areas like Outer Mongolia or parts of Russia’s Far East, historically influenced by China, might be brought up again (though challenging Russia in reality is highly unlikely).


Motivations for Expanding Targets

  • Inertia of Nationalism: Successfully taking Taiwan could greatly boost the confidence of both the government and the public, fostering the belief that the "historical mission" is far from over. This inertia might drive the government to seek new "enemies" or "targets" to maintain mobilization momentum.
  • Geopolitical Strategic Needs: Controlling Taiwan could break through the First Island Chain, giving China greater confidence to challenge the Second Island Chain (e.g., Guam) and further expand its maritime influence.
  • Internal Governance Needs: If domestic economic or social pressures mount, the government might use external "victories" to shift focus, expanding the scope of "reclamation" to bolster its legitimacy.


Specific Forms of Narrative Shift
The official stance might transition from "reclaiming Taiwan as the endpoint" to "reclaiming Taiwan as the starting point." For instance, propaganda could feature statements like: "The return of Taiwan is only the first step; the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation still requires reclaiming all the territories and dignity that belong to us." Such rhetoric would be paired with historical narratives (e.g., "the maritime hegemony of the Ming Dynasty" or "the vast domain of the Qing Dynasty"), framing expansion as a "just restoration."
Assuming China takes Taiwan, whether it continues to expand depends on a balance of internal and external factors: Does the regime need more "victories" to consolidate power internally? Can the international community’s response be managed? China is unlikely to directly "occupy the entire world," but the expansion of its influence (economic, military, and cultural) could still be perceived as a threat. Like Russia, China rationalizes its actions as "just," but this definition of justice is deeply rooted in its historical experiences and ideological drivers, starkly contrasting with the perceptions of the outside world.


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"Sip&Talk": Casual talks on philosophy, AI, geopolitics, and tough topics to spark independent thinking and logic. Hosted by Sunny and Joe.
《Sip&Talk》:哲學、AI、地緣政治與艱難話題的輕鬆對談,喚起獨立思考與邏輯。由Sunny與Joe主持。

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