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中國自古有「四夷朝貢」與「天下大一統」的思想,在習近平時代,這種思想與民族復興情懷重新興起,可能導致進一步影響外部世界的企圖。
類比歷史上的相似敘事擴張:
[國家名義主張實際意圖或後果]
俄羅斯「烏東地區都是俄語區人民!」併吞克里米亞、侵略烏克蘭納粹!
德國「蘇台德地區是德意志民族的土地」入侵捷克後啟動全面戰爭!
北韓「整個朝鮮半島都是我們的」長年對南韓文攻武嚇、未放棄統一夢!
官方是否會改變敘事並擴大「收復」目標?
假設中國拿下台灣,其是否繼續擴張取決於內外因素的平衡:內部是否需要更多「勝利」來鞏固政權?國際社會的反制是否可控?中國不太可能直接「佔領全世界」,但其影響力的擴展(經濟、軍事、文化)可能讓人感受到威脅。與俄羅斯一樣,中國將自己的行動合理化為「正義」,但這種正義的定義深受其歷史經驗與意識形態驅動,與外部世界的認知存在明顯落差。
Since ancient times, China has held the concepts of "tributes from the four barbarian tribes" and "grand unification of the world." In the era of Xi Jinping, these ideas, combined with the sentiment of national rejuvenation, have resurfaced, potentially leading to ambitions of further influencing the external world.
Analogies to historical expansions of similar narratives:
[National claims asserting actual intentions or consequences]
Will the official narrative change and expand "reclamation" targets?
Possibility of Changing the Narrative
If Taiwan is successfully "unified," the Chinese government is likely to shift its propaganda focus from "completing the unification of the motherland" to the broader goal of "rejuvenating the Chinese nation." This shift may be accompanied by new historical interpretations, incorporating other disputed regions (such as the South China Sea, the East China Sea, or even more distant frontiers) into the scope of territories "needing reclamation." For example:
Motivations for Expanding Targets
Specific Forms of Narrative Shift
The official stance might transition from "reclaiming Taiwan as the endpoint" to "reclaiming Taiwan as the starting point." For instance, propaganda could feature statements like: "The return of Taiwan is only the first step; the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation still requires reclaiming all the territories and dignity that belong to us." Such rhetoric would be paired with historical narratives (e.g., "the maritime hegemony of the Ming Dynasty" or "the vast domain of the Qing Dynasty"), framing expansion as a "just restoration."
Assuming China takes Taiwan, whether it continues to expand depends on a balance of internal and external factors: Does the regime need more "victories" to consolidate power internally? Can the international community’s response be managed? China is unlikely to directly "occupy the entire world," but the expansion of its influence (economic, military, and cultural) could still be perceived as a threat. Like Russia, China rationalizes its actions as "just," but this definition of justice is deeply rooted in its historical experiences and ideological drivers, starkly contrasting with the perceptions of the outside world.
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"Sip&Talk": Casual talks on philosophy, AI, geopolitics, and tough topics to spark independent thinking and logic. Hosted by Sunny and Joe.
《Sip&Talk》:哲學、AI、地緣政治與艱難話題的輕鬆對談,喚起獨立思考與邏輯。由Sunny與Joe主持。
影音版:Youytube:Mickytolife
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzYNnXbdeL75PrERbRS3urQ
Podcast:Mickytolife
各大平台:Apple Podcast, Spotify,SoundOn,已上架
小額贊助支持Micky頻道~
https://open.firstory.me/join/clsviykrc013001vp31igc316
音質不夠好?歡迎廠商合作優質設備~
合作信箱:[email protected]
˙ 👉【加入MickyYoutube頻道會員按鈕】
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EP↑《Sip&Talk》 |Sunny & Joe
中國自古有「四夷朝貢」與「天下大一統」的思想,在習近平時代,這種思想與民族復興情懷重新興起,可能導致進一步影響外部世界的企圖。
類比歷史上的相似敘事擴張:
[國家名義主張實際意圖或後果]
俄羅斯「烏東地區都是俄語區人民!」併吞克里米亞、侵略烏克蘭納粹!
德國「蘇台德地區是德意志民族的土地」入侵捷克後啟動全面戰爭!
北韓「整個朝鮮半島都是我們的」長年對南韓文攻武嚇、未放棄統一夢!
官方是否會改變敘事並擴大「收復」目標?
假設中國拿下台灣,其是否繼續擴張取決於內外因素的平衡:內部是否需要更多「勝利」來鞏固政權?國際社會的反制是否可控?中國不太可能直接「佔領全世界」,但其影響力的擴展(經濟、軍事、文化)可能讓人感受到威脅。與俄羅斯一樣,中國將自己的行動合理化為「正義」,但這種正義的定義深受其歷史經驗與意識形態驅動,與外部世界的認知存在明顯落差。
Since ancient times, China has held the concepts of "tributes from the four barbarian tribes" and "grand unification of the world." In the era of Xi Jinping, these ideas, combined with the sentiment of national rejuvenation, have resurfaced, potentially leading to ambitions of further influencing the external world.
Analogies to historical expansions of similar narratives:
[National claims asserting actual intentions or consequences]
Will the official narrative change and expand "reclamation" targets?
Possibility of Changing the Narrative
If Taiwan is successfully "unified," the Chinese government is likely to shift its propaganda focus from "completing the unification of the motherland" to the broader goal of "rejuvenating the Chinese nation." This shift may be accompanied by new historical interpretations, incorporating other disputed regions (such as the South China Sea, the East China Sea, or even more distant frontiers) into the scope of territories "needing reclamation." For example:
Motivations for Expanding Targets
Specific Forms of Narrative Shift
The official stance might transition from "reclaiming Taiwan as the endpoint" to "reclaiming Taiwan as the starting point." For instance, propaganda could feature statements like: "The return of Taiwan is only the first step; the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation still requires reclaiming all the territories and dignity that belong to us." Such rhetoric would be paired with historical narratives (e.g., "the maritime hegemony of the Ming Dynasty" or "the vast domain of the Qing Dynasty"), framing expansion as a "just restoration."
Assuming China takes Taiwan, whether it continues to expand depends on a balance of internal and external factors: Does the regime need more "victories" to consolidate power internally? Can the international community’s response be managed? China is unlikely to directly "occupy the entire world," but the expansion of its influence (economic, military, and cultural) could still be perceived as a threat. Like Russia, China rationalizes its actions as "just," but this definition of justice is deeply rooted in its historical experiences and ideological drivers, starkly contrasting with the perceptions of the outside world.
小額贊助支持本節目: https://open.firstory.me/user/clsviykrc013001vp31igc316
留言告訴我你對這一集的想法: https://open.firstory.me/user/clsviykrc013001vp31igc316/comments
"Sip&Talk": Casual talks on philosophy, AI, geopolitics, and tough topics to spark independent thinking and logic. Hosted by Sunny and Joe.
《Sip&Talk》:哲學、AI、地緣政治與艱難話題的輕鬆對談,喚起獨立思考與邏輯。由Sunny與Joe主持。
影音版:Youytube:Mickytolife
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzYNnXbdeL75PrERbRS3urQ
Podcast:Mickytolife
各大平台:Apple Podcast, Spotify,SoundOn,已上架
小額贊助支持Micky頻道~
https://open.firstory.me/join/clsviykrc013001vp31igc316
音質不夠好?歡迎廠商合作優質設備~
合作信箱:[email protected]
˙ 👉【加入MickyYoutube頻道會員按鈕】
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzYNnXbdeL75PrERbRS3urQ/join?sub_confirmation=1
👉【免費訂閱MickyYoutube頻道按鈕】
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzYNnXbdeL75PrERbRS3urQ?sub_confirmation=1
Micky本人的日常品酒與人生雜談
+
EP↑《Sip&Talk》 |Sunny & Joe