AI Propaganda and Market RealityKey Points
- LLMs are pattern matching systems, not true AI - similar to established clustering and regression techniques
- Innovation follows non-linear path, contrary to VC expectations
- VCs require exponential returns - 1/100 investments must generate massive profits
- Perfect competition emerging in AI market - open source models reaching parity with commercial ones
Technical Context
- LLMs extend existing data science tools:
- K-means clustering
- Linear regression
- Recommendation engines
- Pattern matching in multi-dimensional space β intelligence
Market Dynamics
- VCs invested expecting exponential growth
- Getting logarithmic returns instead
- Fear driving two contradictory narratives:
- "Use AI or lose job"
- "AI will take your jobs"
Historical Parallel
Steam engine (1700s) β combustion engine β electric cars (1910-2025)
Demonstrates long adoption curves for transformative tech
Recommendation
Use LLMs pragmatically:
- Beneficial for code tasks
- Prefer open source implementations
- Ignore hype from vested interests
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