Good Revenue

🚨 AI's 94% Failure Rate Exposed: $220B Wasted? NASA Warns Against AI


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Host Neeta Bidwai examines groundbreaking AI research revealing how systems think, dangerous confidence patterns, and critical business implications. Plus design thinking validation breakthrough.


This episode covers:

💰 Massive AI Capital Allocation: Microsoft commits $80B, Meta $65B, Alphabet $75B—total $220B investment surge with unexpected data center strategy shifts signaling infrastructure concerns


⚠️ AI Confidence Crisis: Columbia Journalism Review analysis exposes AI systems delivering incorrect answers with unwarranted confidence up to 94% of cases—major reliability risk for business applications


🔍 Citation Fabrication Problem: Evidence reveals AI search engines manufacturing non-existent URLs and bypassing publisher permissions, creating serious credibility and legal exposure


🧪 AI Cognitive Breakthrough: Anthropic research uncovers unexpected mechanisms in large language models including universal "language of thought" and autonomous long-term planning capabilities


🚀 NASA Safety Assessment: Technical evaluation indicates significant advancement requirements before LLMs can contribute to safety-critical systems


Design Thinking Validation: Peer-reviewed field experiments confirm Design Thinking effectiveness, particularly for diverse teams



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Highlights:

00:00 Introduction and Overview

00:22 Economic Chaos and AI Investments

01:50 AI Search Engines: Flaws and Findings

03:42 Anthropic's AI Research Insights

06:01 NASA's Skepticism on AI in Critical Systems

06:40 Design Thinking Proven Effective

07:37 Conclusion and Sign-Off


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Referenced:

• Microsoft pulls back on data center leases in US & Europe: https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-pulls-back-more-data-center-leases-us-europe-analysts-say-2025-03-26/

• Trade strategy breakdown and analysis: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=398ZhSTu8Ng

• Columbia Journal Review of AI Search Engines: https://www.cjr.org/tow_center/we-compared-eight-ai-search-engines-theyre-all-bad-at-citing-news.php

• Anthropic researchers investigate how Claude LLM thinks: https://www.anthropic.com/research/tracing-thoughts-language-model

• Last week’s Good Revenue episode - Robots talking to robots: https://youtu.be/PL9lyQoq5WY

• NASA doesn’t think LLMs are ready for prime time: https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20250001849/downloads/NASA-TM-20250001849.pdf?attachment=true

• Design thinking really does work: https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fapl0001277

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Good RevenueBy Neeta Bidwai