This Brookings Institution working paper models artificial intelligence's (AI) long-term effects on the US federal budget. The authors analyze AI's impact through four channels: mortality rates, healthcare costs and utilization, and aggregate productivity. Their simulations suggest AI could either increase or decrease annual budget deficits by up to 1.5 percent of GDP by 2044, depending on the interplay of these factors. The study uses historical data and economic modeling to project potential outcomes, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding AI's overall fiscal impact. A literature review supports the analysis, examining the existing research on AI's influence on healthcare and broader economic productivity.

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/The-fiscal-frontier.pdf