Positive drivers such as the strength of the IT sector and fiscal support in the US have stalled. Markets are again focused on the spread of Covid-19 and how soon we can return to normality. For the longer term, the development of an effective vaccine is the key question. Indications of pre-existing immunity in the wider population give cause for optimism, but the logistics of wide-scale distribution could be a hindrance. For now, markets are focused on infection patterns as the second wave spreads across much of Western Europe. Governments must choose between containing the virus and preventing the economic damage that renewed large-scale lockdowns would cause.

In this week’s podcast, Ewout van Schaick and Mark Belsey explore the current state of virus developments, the economic and market ramifications of further lockdowns, and what we expect for the coming months.