this show continues the beginning of 2025 predictions for US domestic and global politics (see last week’s show for economic predictions). Predictions include Ukraine army will collapse by the summer and real negotiations then begin. Before talks commence with no solution. Europe: Germany’s Afd right wing party will win big in the February elections. Instability in Europe will grow. EU will begin to steal Russia’s frozen assets in its bank. Russia will conclude mutual defense treaty with Iran and more countries will join BRICS in 2025. Israel will air attack Iran and US-Israel will occupy Damascus replacing HTS rebels. Turkey will defeat Kurds and de facto occupy north of former Syria. Political instability will intensify in So Korea, In US politics, Greenland will break from Denmark and negotiate with USA as a territory. Panama Canal will agree to joint control of the canal with US. Trump will renegotiate trade deals with Canada, Mexico and Europe, in a comprehensive ‘Plaza Accords 2.0’ Musk and DOGE will recommend $200B annual spending cuts and Congress will pass Trump’s tax cuts extension costing US budget $4T next decade. Trump will slash foreign aid, education, federal work force, energy subsidies, and restart southern US border wall construction. US budget deficit will again hit $1.5T in 2025 despite the cuts.

Predictions were made for this coming year for the US and global economies. They include likelihood of recession in 1H25 beyond goods sector,  inflation likely to drift up again, Fed rate policy, DOGE/Congress austerity measures cutting social programs, Trump tax cuts, deficits and national debt, Tariffs and their consequences, AI technology trends, financial asset markets (stocks and bonds). For the global economy the direction of the US $ short term v. long, a new Plaza Accord 2.0 for US allies, likelihood of Europe sliding further into recession, BRICS expansion in ’25, Russia’s economy and China’s. (Next week: predictions for US domestic political scene and geopolitical developments re. Ukraine & middle east, Russian sanctions, and So. Korea political instability. Also: the legacies of Jimmy Carter presidency)

Today’s show is the annual year end summary of the more important events and developments for 2024 for the economy and politic: A review of the US economy inflation trends, Fed rate policies, US goods sector recession, USA’s runaway budget deficit and national debt, Longshore union negotiations, Artificial Intelligence & Tech trends, pending 2025 Austerity social program cuts & Musk’s DOGE, Biden sanctions on Russia and China, BRICS expansion, the state of Europe & China economies, and the emerging global currency instability as prices and US $ rise. Political review includes the US election of 2024, Trump’s victory, Biden’s coup & Democrat party confusion, and globally the War on the ground in Ukraine, Israel wars in Lebanon-Iran-Yemen, and the collapse of Syria and its consequences. (NEXT WEEK: Annual economic and political predictions for 2025 and review of last year’s predictions for 2024)

Today’s show discusses the key economic events of recent weeks and their relevance to economic policy in 2025. Why did the debt-ceiling deal collapse and then pass last week. What does it mean. Trump’s fiscal strategy taking shape: tariffs, tax cuts, and austerity social spending cuts coming. Musk-Swarmy’s DOGE. Why it won’t resolve the chronic $1 trillion plus annual budget deficits, rising national debt, and $ trillion annual payments to rich bondholders. Neoliberalism fiscal contradictions and crisis will continue. What’s Musk’s DOGE plans? Why the Fed cut interest rates but admitted inflation is rising into 2025. Why inflation will continue to rise. As rates rise will a rising dollar in turn precipitate a global currency war? (Next week show: review of key events of 2024 and my predictions for 2024 made December 2023 last year)

As follow up to last week’s show Ukraine war is center topic. But in past week pro-NATO forces opened up new ‘fronts’ well beyond the conflict. Not by accident rebel forces, coordinating with Turkish, Israeli and US forces accelerating an attack in Syria opening a new front Russia must commit forces to. Another front is Georgia as CIA-US NGO forces continue street demonstrations to try to overthrow that country’s elected government, in a ‘color revolution’ effort much like Ukraine 2014. Yet a third front is the events in So. Korea where the pro-US president attempted to declare martial law, reversed by the Parliament, but supported by the Korean and US occupation military. The show explains how all three events are best understood as events related to US empire counters to Russia-China.  Trump’s latest tariff moves against China and BRICS also part of the counter strategy. Show concludes with analysis of Trump’s several anti-war initial nominees being rejected as US neocons & Biden admin. buy time to restore aid & weapons to Ukraine

Today’s show focuses on last two weeks’ events in Ukraine wear and the steady US/NATO escalation. Biden approves US long range missiles fired into Russia; US & France provide Storm Shadow long range missiles in turn; Macron reportedly (by Le Monde) again discussing sending French troops; NATO planning document reveals plan for Poland-Romania-UK-Germany to divide up Ukraine; US general Bauer, head of NATO military commission publicly calls for ‘pre-emptive’ strike on Russia; Biden gives Ukraine another $700m and calls for another $24B and tells Ukraine to lower its draft age to 18; Trump NSA pick Gorka calls Putin a thug and warns US under Trump will double its aide, Trump selects neocon friendly NSA advisers raising doubt about his campaign promises to end the Ukraine war. Meanwhile, Putin answers NATO/US escalation with new Oreshnik hypersonic missile with 36 warheads, lowers decision to use tactical nukes, threatens to hit any NATO base from which missiles are fired, signs mutual defense treaty with Iran, and gives warnings to west in speech in Kazakhstan. 

A big debate in the mainstream media during the recent election was why do surveys show average American voters don’t believe the economy is doing as great as government data indicate? More specifically, why do they believe inflation is higher than reported by the Consumer Price Index? Today’s Alternative Visions show takes on that issue: why prices are higher than government price indexes report. Latest CPI report this past week said prices rose only 2.6% over the past year. (The companion government PCE report is even lower).  What the media doesn’t report, however, is the various assumptions and questionable methodologies the government uses in estimating prices and inflation. Today’s show explains briefly 14 of them. Inflation is easily therefore not 2.6% but more than 4% in general. In some areas of the economy rose at double digit levels the past year. And since 2019 around 30-35%. The show concludes with evidence even prices per the government indexes are creeping back up. And several forces threaten in 2025 to escalate the rate of inflation as well (for gasoline, insurances, imports, child care and other services).

Today’s show topic is an assessment of the November 6 election and why Trump won. What were some interesting facts about both the electoral college vote outcome and the national popular vote totals that the mainstream media is ignoring? What new strategies Trump introduced that may have made a difference vs. old strategies Harris carried out that no longer resonate with voters>? Is there a political party realignment that is now beginning? Is Identity politics now DOA? The show concludes with some early predictions what Trump will focus on first after January 20. Why Austerity big social program spending cuts are coming. How will Trump handle the rise of the BRICS? (For my latest written article on the same topics go to https://jackrasmus.com/2024/11/08/why-trump-won-and-some-consequences/ ) Or to the LA Progressive blog for November 8.

the latest US Labor Dept jobs out today show a rapidly deteriorating jobs market. Not just in the media oft-cited CES (large corporations) jobs data but in the Labor Dept’s second CPS survey that picks up smaller businesses which is retreating even faster.  CES jobs for October rose a mere 12,000. (And previous months were revised down to an average jobs growth of only 67,000/mo. July-Sept. Even worse, the CPS jobs survey showed -220,000 net employment fall in October. Full time jobs continued to disappear while part time rose. Other negative job stats were discussed in the show. Slowing jobs picture contradicts media hype the economy was doing great in third quarter. The second half of the show discusses the 3 existential issues in the current US election being totally ignored by both Harris and Trump: the massive and accelerating US budget deficits, national debt and interest payments on the debt, the big Austerity spending cuts coming in 2025 regardless who wins the election, and the BRICS challenge to the very foundations of the US global economy empire that is developing further as well with 13 new BRICS members joining the current 10. (For more on my analysis of the BRICS check out my Youtube interview along with Indian economist, S.L.Kanthan, at https://www.youtube.com/live/veY2FoKsyuY )

Today’s show is dedicated to this past week’s historic BRICS conference in Kazan, Russia and how it represents the most serious challenge underway to US Global Economic hegemony. What are the key institutions of US global economic power? How do the BRICS alternative economic infrastructure challenge the dominance of the key US institutions and vehicles of US power: the IMF, World Bank, SWIFT, the $dollar, the twin deficits solution to recycling dollars, etc. A history of the origins and causes of the rise of the BRICS are discussed today. And how the BRICS are an existential challenge to US global economic dominance. For more on this topic, join the discussion on the same with myself and India economist, S.L. Kanthan, this coming Sunday, October 27, at 9am pacific time at: https://www.youtube.com/live/veY2FoKsyuY?si=4lEsQnyhDtzd215u