On February 4th, I had the great pleasure of Interviewing Andrew Fox. Mr. Fox served 16 years as a paratrooper in the British Army, was a senior lecturer at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, teaching in the War Studies and Behavioural Science departments, and is currently a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society. He is a regular Middle East commentator on national media and has provided invaluable analysis and much-appreciated commentary throughout the Israel-Hamas war.

Inheritance interviewed Mr. Fox as a participant in the oral history of the hostage deal. We are publishing his interview in full because his expert analysis is useful in making sense of the volatile military situation in Gaza. Last Saturday, three hostages were released from Gaza looking as if they’d barely survived a concentration camp. This inflamed tensions, causing Hamas to concoct a spurious justification for reneging on the deal and threaten to stop releasing hostages. Israel has threatened to resume bombardment of Gaza if hostages are not returned as planned.

The hostage deal that may end this weekend has so far brought the return of 16 hostages, ending more than 471 days in Hamas captivity. However, this may have come at the cost of future national security for Israel. Questions to this effect have been voiced by many participants in the oral history. What are the costs and benefits of this deal? How much power does Hamas still have? How will Israel be able to restart the war? Will Hamas stay in power? How safe will Israel be? What is the medium-long term outlook for the region?

Mr. Fox has kindly provided his assessment of these questions and more. Below is summary of his analysis. As a reminder, this interview was conducted on February 4th, 2025.

What are the costs and benefits of this deal?

At the beginning of the war, Israel set three goals: destroy Hamas, bring back all of the hostages, and secure Israel’s border. Israel has already secured its border for the short-medium term and has severely degraded Hamas. This phase of the deal will see 33 more hostages return home. There is an inherent conflict between the objectives of destroying Hamas and getting the hostages back, but this deal largely builds on the progress that Israel has made towards its initial war goals.

The major exception, of course, is that Hamas has survived. They have done this by using the whole of Gaza as a human shield: we’ve seen plenty of footage of fighters emerging from humanitarian zones and hospitals. Hamas has filled out its ranks with new recruits and can again operate openly in Gaza and put on displays of strength. A major shift in their strategy is that Hamas is no longer talking to the West, where it benefits them to pretend to be the victim. Now they are focusing on the Arab world where they want to be seen as strong.

This deal will not lead to an enduring peace, but it is likely the best deal Israel could have gotten under these awful circumstances.

How real is Hamas’ ability to project power?

Hamas’ power is pretty real, actually. Their recruiting surge brings them back to to 20-30k soldiers, around half of what they had before the war. These are largely inexperienced soldiers, not the elite Nukhba forces, so they won’t be able to do another October 7th style attack in the short term. But at this point, that’s not the capability they need. “What they need now is the ability to retain power in Gaza, and for that you need a goon and an AK-47 and not a great deal more, quite frankly.” They have time to recover the ability to launch major offensives on Israel.

Regime change is basically out of the question without an occupation. Even if there is a regime change, especially one brought about through diplomacy, the new regime will be just as bad. Hamas can simply rebrand itself as “Sham-as”. Hamas will continue to have administrative control over Gaza. We can expect that Hamas will continue to use the humanitarian aid supply to leverage the civilian population now that the IDF can’t strike it any longer.

The Relationship Between Hamas and Its Allies

The situation between the Palestinian Authority (PA) controlled West Bank and Hamas-controlled Gaza is quite interesting. Hamas has 60-70% approval in the West Bank, which creates tension with the PA. Iran, which backs both, likely believes that stoking a third intifada through the West Bank is an effective way to pressure Israel. While Hezbollah fires rockets at Israel and Hamas conducts operations that will have Israel condemned on the world stage, Iran can flood the West Bank with arms and explosives, encouraging asymmetric attacks to pressure Israel.

Israel has done a pretty good job shoring up the Jordan valley crossings and taking proactive actions to prevent these attacks happening at the scale that Iran wants.

Meanwhile, Turkey and Qatar will be working to improve their positions in the region. Turkey has made great strides in Syria with both the Syria Democratic Forces (SDF) and Hyatt Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

How Challenging will it be for Israel to Restart the War?

Militarily, It’s going to be very hard to go back into Gaza, largely because people have reentered Northern Gaza and the Netzarim Corridor has largely collapsed. This corridor had been a tactically very significant position.

Politically, it will be very hard as well. Although Mr. Trump is very pro-Israel, America’s support may not be enough to offset international condemnation should Israel start firing into an unevacuated Gaza City.

Do you think we will make it to Phase II of this deal?

“I can’t give you much more than a wet finger in the air, quite frankly.” Making it to Phase II will depend on Hamas’ behavior and negotiations. There had been some question about whether Netanyahu would deploy his negotiators to Qatar to begin Phase II negotiations. Following his trip to the White House, the negotiators have been deployed.

The success of these negotiations will depend on how much pressure we are able to put on Hamas’ backers, and the degree of political control negotiators in Doha actually have over Hamas troops. Many levels of Hamas chain-of-command have been taken out during this war.

Will Hamas agree to be removed from power. If so, will it just be a rebrand? Will the PA play any role in governing Gaza? Hamas’ polling in Gaza has dropped to 30-35% so this may be an option.

Will the ceasefire hold? This primarily depends on how many dead hostages are returned. The more that are returned dead, the greater Israeli popular support will be for restarting the war.

Is there a long-term solution?

Israel isn’t going anywhere, no matter how many intifadas are launched. A precondition of a long-term solution is that Palestine accept Israel politik.

Palestine needs to move to a more moderate position by letting go of “right to return” rhetoric, ending permanent refugee status, and their victimhood culture. They have agency and they must use it.

The one thing that Northern Ireland can teach us is that a ceasefire can lead to economic development which can lead to a lasting peace. Though, there aren’t many other parallels between Ireland and Palestine, and factors of hatred are much worse in the Israel-Palestine conflict.

What is the state of Israeli national security?

Israel is safer than it was on October 6th. Israel is now clear on what the threats are and they have dealt with them. It is waging a multi-threat war.

Lebanon: The IDF has reduced Hezbollah from “a major threat to barely a regional militia”. That said, there is still a threat from the northern flank. The Lebanese military is “in full chocolate teapot mode” when dealing with Hezbollah. Israel will probably not be able to fully withdraw from Lebanon in the immediate future.

Syria: Although it has not yet ignited, Syria is still a “jihadi tinderbox”. That said, Mr. Fox is very encouraged by statements that HTS leader Mr. al-Jolani made during the week of February 4th. There are more positive noises than in the past, unless you are a Kurd hoping for an independent Kurdistan.

Iran: Iran is on the back foot. They are weaker than they have been in 20 years and have mostly been neutered following Israel’s destruction of its missile defense system.

Houthis: The Houthis are not really Israel’s problem. There is an international solution to the Houthis, and Mr. Trump might pursue this.

The International Community: While Israel is safer in physical terms, the international community is largely aligned against Israel. For now, Israel retains America’s backing, and thankfully, that’s really all that matters.

Israel has learned the importance of buffer zones, and they’re not going to let go of these buffer zones easily.

What images have stuck in your mind from the first couple weeks of the hostage deal?

Emily Damari’s victory sign. I had met her mother twice and was very impressed with how she took the fight to the British government. It was very touching to see someone I have one-degree of separation with return home.

The footage coming out of Gaza is doing an excellent job debunking Hamas’ own claims of genocide. They are very well-groomed and well-fed people.

What do you anticipate over the next couple of weeks?

If there’s any progress in negotiations for removing Hamas, that will be very interesting. There is plenty of opportunity for Hamas sleight of hand or bad faith here. Mr. Fox will be watching to see what concessions Hamas will attempt to extract from Israel and what red lines Israel will set. He is “Not hugely hopeful there will be an enduring solution, but I hope I’m wrong.”

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