This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit claireberlinski.substack.com

First: Dan reports from Israel on the declining probability of an imminent attack on Iran (down to 18 percent, the prediction markets say). Trump has set a low bar for de-escalation: He claims he just wants Iran to say “we don’t want a nuclear weapon.” But Iran has always claimed that it doesn’t want a nuclear weapon, even as it enriches uranium to weap…