This episode delves into the recent dynamics of the global smartphone market based on the latest reports from IDC and Counterpoint Research. After two challenging years of decline, 2024 marked a significant recovery, showing the resilience of the market despite lingering macroeconomic pressures. We explore the factors driving this growth, the changing landscape among major players, the rise of new manufacturing hubs like India, and the exciting role of AI in shaping the future of mobile.

Key Highlights:

• Market Recovery: Global smartphone shipments increased by 6.4% year-over-year in 2024, reaching 1.24 billion units. This follows a period of decline since the market peaked in 2016 at 1.47 billion units. The recovery saw smartphone sales grow 4% YoY in 2024, following the weakest year in a decade in 2023. The strong growth in 2024 occurred despite lingering macro challenges, forex concerns in emerging markets, ongoing inflation, and lukewarm demand, proving the market's resilience. Consumer sentiment fared better than in previous years following macroeconomic improvements. Almost all markets showed growth, led by Europe, China and Latin America.
• Top Players & Shifting Shares: Apple and Samsung remained the top two players globally in 2024. According to IDC, both leaders experienced a YoY decline in Q4 2024 due to the aggressive growth of Chinese vendors. Samsung continued to lead the market in 2024 overall, while Apple took the #2 spot with an 18% share according to Counterpoint Research. According to another source, Apple led global shipments in 2024 at 232.1 million units, followed by Samsung at 223.4 million units. Samsung saw strong demand for its S24 and A-series lines, with the S24 performing well as the first phone positioned as an AI device, particularly in Western Europe and the USA. Apple’s iPhone 16 series received a mixed response, partly due to the initial lack of Apple Intelligence availability, although Apple continued to grow strongly in non-core markets like Latin America, Africa and Asia-Pacific-Others.
• Rise of Chinese Vendors: Chinese vendors achieved a historic milestone in Q4 2024, shipping the highest combined volume ever in a single quarter, representing 56% of global smartphone shipments in Q4. Xiaomi secured the 3rd position for the year, with total shipments of 168.5 million units and the highest YoY growth rate (15.4%) among the top 5 players. Xiaomi's growth was helped by its portfolio realignment, premium push, and aggressive expansion activities. Transsion (including itel, Infinix, and Tecno) held the 4th position for the year with a 12.7% growth rate, and claimed the fourth spot globally for the first time. OPPO was 4th but saw a YoY decline, though it ended the year with stronger momentum. vivo rounded off the top five, driven by strong performance in India and China, ending the year as the top-ranked OEM in those markets. Challenger brands like HONOR and Motorola also contributed to the market recovery with aggressive global expansion. Huawei also made a resurgence in China, notably in the high-end segment. While their core markets remain China and Asia, Chinese brands are rapidly expanding their footprint throughout Europe and Africa.
• Growth Drivers: The growth is attributed to brands' strategic moves like promotions, launching devices across multiple price segments, interest-free financing, and aggressive trade-ins. These strategies fuelled premiumisation and boosted sales of low-end devices, especially in China and emerging markets. Device subsidies in developed markets and the easy availability of low-cost finance in emerging markets enabled the growth of ultra-premium smartphones.
• India as a Manufacturing Hub: India has emerged as a critical market and manufacturing hub. iPhone exports from India hit a record $12.8 billion in 2024, marking a 42% YoY increase. In FY 2024-25, iPhone exports contributed about ₹1.5 lakh crore to overall smartphone exports exceeding ₹2 lakh crore. Apple is targeting a potential 32% share of its global iPhone production from India by 2026-27, aiming to double its current capacity of 4-4.1 crore iPhones per annum to around 8-8.5 crore units annually. India is seen as a "China Plus One" source for Apple, driven not just by cost, but also capability, trained workforce, and quality control. Key vendors like Foxconn, Pegatron, and Tata Electronics manufacture iPhones primarily in Tamil Nadu, with Wistron handling production in Karnataka. Tamil Nadu is considered the smartphone manufacturing capital of India, with the state government actively preparing land and infrastructure near Chennai and Tier 2 locations like Trichy, providing industrial housing, tertiary treated water, and developing a skilled workforce through schemes like Naan Mudhalvan and upgrading ITIs.
• Innovation and the Future: AI is a potentially revolutionary technology being integrated into smartphones to drive future growth. GenAI features, currently limited to premium segments, are expected to become common in mid-range devices by 2028. Major players like Apple ("Apple Intelligence") and Samsung are unveiling AI-driven features, with Google also expected to do so. Samsung's S24 series is positioned as an AI device. Premiumisation is also a key trend, with sales of ultra-premium phones (above $1000) growing fastest in 2024 as consumers showed a preference for spending more on their next smartphone. Continued growth is expected in 2025, with revenues potentially growing faster than volume (8% YoY revenue growth vs 4% volume growth expected in 2025).

Sources Referenced:The episode draws on reports and analysis from various sources, including IDC (International Data Corporation), Counterpoint Research, Statista, Reuters, Business Wire, Visual Capitalist, WSJ (The Wall Street Journal), WIRED, The Times of India, Canalys, FoneArena, Unbox Diaries, Financial Times, and Business Insider. Please note that direct URLs to the specific source excerpts used were not provided in the source material.We remain optimistic about continued growth in the market.(Note: Information about the sponsor's website, approov.io, was not found in the provided source materials and thus cannot be included in these notes based on the sources.)

Keywords: Smartphone market, global shipments, 2024 recovery, Chinese vendors, Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, Transsion, India manufacturing, iPhone exports, AI in smartphones, GenAI, premiumisation, market trends, technology, electronics, mobile industry, IDC, Counterpoint Research