Tensions are spiking: F-35s in Puerto Rico, Venezuelan troop surges, boat strikes at sea, and louder great-power echoes. In this 10–15 minute solo explainer, I break down what “war” would actually look like here (hint: incidents and limited strikes, not an invasion), why the standoff escalated, and what to watch next.

In this episode:

What’s happening right now—and what “counts” as war

Why tensions spiked: counternarcotics ops, Essequibo, and Caracas politics

The hard numbers so far on boat strikes, seizures, and casualties

Who’s backing whom: Maduro’s appeals to Russia/China and regional blowback

The legal/political guardrails that limit escalation

An easy escalation ladder: from intercepts → limited strikes → (unlikely) state-on-state war

What signals to watch in the coming days

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