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Are We Just Guessing? Financial Forecasts for Early-Stage Founders
“How are other founders confident in their financial projections?”
If you’ve ever stared at a blank spreadsheet wondering how to come up with numbers that make sense — you’re not alone. In this episode of the TxO Startup Hotline series, Kofi Ampadu, partner at a16z and head of TxO, walks through five practical steps to help early-stage founders build financial projections they can actually feel good about.
He breaks down bottoms-up vs. top-down models, what assumptions to make, how to map out revenue and costs, and why your projections matter (even when they’re not perfect). Plus, there’s a free financial projections template to help you get started today.
Timestamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:50 – Founder question
01:12 – Why no one feels 100% confident in their projections
01:42 – Top-down vs. bottoms-up forecasting explained
02:33 – A walkthrough of bottoms-up forecasting using a lemonade stand business model
02:55 – Understanding revenue assumptions: customers, pricing, and frequency
03:28 – Understanding cost assumptions
04:03 – Explaining your expenses
04:22 - Building a 12 month projection
04:45 – How to use this model to gain investor confidence
5:00 – Where to get the free template
Download the free financial projections template → https://info.a16z.com/Download-TxO-Startup-Hotline-Financial-Projections-Template.html
Want your question answered in the series? Call 1-844-DIAL-TXO and leave us a message.
The Talent x Opportunity initiative (TxO) at Andreessen Horowitz supports founders building cultural innovations through funding, training and ongoing mentorship. Learn more about a16z TxO and stay updated:
https://a16z.com/txo
https://x.com/a16ztxo
https://www.instagram.com/a16ztxo/
https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/a16z-txo
The content here is for informational purposes only, should not be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security, and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. Please note that a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed in this product. For more details, including a link to our investments, please see a16z.com/disclosures
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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By a16z Talent x Opportunity“How are other founders confident in their financial projections?”
If you’ve ever stared at a blank spreadsheet wondering how to come up with numbers that make sense — you’re not alone. In this episode of the TxO Startup Hotline series, Kofi Ampadu, partner at a16z and head of TxO, walks through five practical steps to help early-stage founders build financial projections they can actually feel good about.
He breaks down bottoms-up vs. top-down models, what assumptions to make, how to map out revenue and costs, and why your projections matter (even when they’re not perfect). Plus, there’s a free financial projections template to help you get started today.
Timestamps:
00:00 – Intro
00:50 – Founder question
01:12 – Why no one feels 100% confident in their projections
01:42 – Top-down vs. bottoms-up forecasting explained
02:33 – A walkthrough of bottoms-up forecasting using a lemonade stand business model
02:55 – Understanding revenue assumptions: customers, pricing, and frequency
03:28 – Understanding cost assumptions
04:03 – Explaining your expenses
04:22 - Building a 12 month projection
04:45 – How to use this model to gain investor confidence
5:00 – Where to get the free template
Download the free financial projections template → https://info.a16z.com/Download-TxO-Startup-Hotline-Financial-Projections-Template.html
Want your question answered in the series? Call 1-844-DIAL-TXO and leave us a message.
The Talent x Opportunity initiative (TxO) at Andreessen Horowitz supports founders building cultural innovations through funding, training and ongoing mentorship. Learn more about a16z TxO and stay updated:
https://a16z.com/txo
https://x.com/a16ztxo
https://www.instagram.com/a16ztxo/
https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/a16z-txo
The content here is for informational purposes only, should not be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security, and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. Please note that a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed in this product. For more details, including a link to our investments, please see a16z.com/disclosures
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.