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Are We Winning the War in Iran? Plus. . .
It’s Thursday, March 19. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Why is Candace Owens speaking at a Catholic gala in the nation’s capital? Konstantin Kisin on what’s gone wrong in Europe. How the Canadian justice system is squashing political expression. And much more.
But first: Are we winning the war in Iran?
It’s been 20 days since the war in Iran began. Casualties are climbing. Oil prices are surging. And the question hanging over everything is getting harder to ignore: Is victory possible—and if so, what would it actually look like?
Today we bring you three voices grappling with that question.
First, Michael Doran examines the mounting pressure on President Trump to bring the war to an end. “Trump undoubtedly wants out,” he writes. “But he also knows that a premature exit leaves the core threat intact.” As a summit with Xi Jinping looms in May, read Michael’s full piece on why Trump can achieve “decisive victory” by dismantling Iran’s missile and drone network—and why anything less would project weakness, embolden China, and leave the global balance more fragile than before.
That “decisive victory” may depend, in part, on Mossad. As Eli Lake reports today, Israel’s national intelligence agency has spent years covertly aiding Iranian opposition groups, hacking infrastructure, and targeting pro-regime militias. While the Iranian people will ultimately determine the regime’s fate, Eli writes, “Israel is evening the odds for a revolution.” Read his full piece below. And don’t miss his latest episode of Breaking History, where he sits down with Andrew Sullivan to debate the political, strategic, and moral stakes of the war.
Finally, Israeli journalist Amit Segal examines Israel’s campaign to systematically eliminate Iran’s top leadership—including the killing of Ali Larijani on Tuesday—and asks a deeper question: Does decapitating the regime bring it closer to collapse, or reveal its resilience? Is this a brittle system that could fall with one more push—or an ideological state built to absorb blow after blow?
—Jillian Lederman
MORE FROM THE FREE PRESSTHE NEWSIranian intelligence minister Esmail Khatib attends the inauguration of the Assembly of Experts in Tehran on May 21, 2024. (Vahid Salemi via AP Photo)Israel announced on Wednesday that overnight strikes had killed Iranian intelligence minister Esmail Khatib in Tehran, the third senior Iranian official killed in two days. Israeli strikes also reportedly hit a facility in Iran on the world’s largest natural gas field—the first time Israel has struck one of the country’s biggest economic assets—provoking retaliatory strikes on sites in Qatar and Saudi Arabia and causing oil prices to rise to more than $108 per barrel.
In Lebanon, Israel launched a separate round of strikes targeting Al-Qard al-Hasan Association, a financial institution tied to Hezbollah. If successful, the attacks on Hezbollah would weaken one of the Iranian regime’s key allies.
Despite the Strait of Hormuz being effectively closed since the outset of the war in Iran, new reporting shows that about 90 ships with likely ties to Iran have managed to cross, evading Western sanctions and exporting millions of barrels of oil out of the region. (For more on the global importance of the Strait of Hormuz, read Niall Ferguson’s essay, “This Is How the Iran War Goes Global.”)
Top U.S. intelligence officials said the Iranian regime “appears to be intact but largely degraded” during back-to-back congressional hearings that began on Wednesday. The Trump administration’s foreign policy is under increased scrutiny after Joe Kent, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned on Tuesday out of opposition to the Iran war.
Confirmation hearings began Wednesday for Senator Markwayne Mullin, Trump’s pick to succeed Kristi Noem as Secretary of Homeland Security and lead the administration’s deportation strategy. While a decision has yet to be made, Senator Rand Paul said that confirmation is on track to occur quickly, beginning with a committee vote on Thursday.
Evanston mayor Daniel Biss won a fiercely contested Democratic primary for an Illinois House seat on Tuesday night, beating Kat Abughazaleh, a young digital content creator who has frequently criticized Israel. Illinois lieutenant governor Juliana Stratton also won the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, coming out on top in a race that became increasingly competitive following the retirement of Dick Durbin, the Senate’s longtime No. 2 Democrat.
A man was arrested on Tuesday after he was caught climbing into the enclosure of pygmy hippo Moo Deng at a Thai zoo. Moo Deng, who has become a viral sensation in the past year, was not harmed in the encounter.
Set your brackets, sports fans: March Madness begins today. At 12:15 p.m. ET, Texas Christian University will take on Ohio State in the first game of the 2026 NCAA tournament. (Until then, check out Joe Nocera’s piece on why “Paying College Athletes Has Created a Mess. It Was Still the Right Thing to Do.”)
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By Bari WeissIt’s Thursday, March 19. This is The Front Page, your daily window into the world of The Free Press—and our take on the world at large. Today: Why is Candace Owens speaking at a Catholic gala in the nation’s capital? Konstantin Kisin on what’s gone wrong in Europe. How the Canadian justice system is squashing political expression. And much more.
But first: Are we winning the war in Iran?
It’s been 20 days since the war in Iran began. Casualties are climbing. Oil prices are surging. And the question hanging over everything is getting harder to ignore: Is victory possible—and if so, what would it actually look like?
Today we bring you three voices grappling with that question.
First, Michael Doran examines the mounting pressure on President Trump to bring the war to an end. “Trump undoubtedly wants out,” he writes. “But he also knows that a premature exit leaves the core threat intact.” As a summit with Xi Jinping looms in May, read Michael’s full piece on why Trump can achieve “decisive victory” by dismantling Iran’s missile and drone network—and why anything less would project weakness, embolden China, and leave the global balance more fragile than before.
That “decisive victory” may depend, in part, on Mossad. As Eli Lake reports today, Israel’s national intelligence agency has spent years covertly aiding Iranian opposition groups, hacking infrastructure, and targeting pro-regime militias. While the Iranian people will ultimately determine the regime’s fate, Eli writes, “Israel is evening the odds for a revolution.” Read his full piece below. And don’t miss his latest episode of Breaking History, where he sits down with Andrew Sullivan to debate the political, strategic, and moral stakes of the war.
Finally, Israeli journalist Amit Segal examines Israel’s campaign to systematically eliminate Iran’s top leadership—including the killing of Ali Larijani on Tuesday—and asks a deeper question: Does decapitating the regime bring it closer to collapse, or reveal its resilience? Is this a brittle system that could fall with one more push—or an ideological state built to absorb blow after blow?
—Jillian Lederman
MORE FROM THE FREE PRESSTHE NEWSIranian intelligence minister Esmail Khatib attends the inauguration of the Assembly of Experts in Tehran on May 21, 2024. (Vahid Salemi via AP Photo)Israel announced on Wednesday that overnight strikes had killed Iranian intelligence minister Esmail Khatib in Tehran, the third senior Iranian official killed in two days. Israeli strikes also reportedly hit a facility in Iran on the world’s largest natural gas field—the first time Israel has struck one of the country’s biggest economic assets—provoking retaliatory strikes on sites in Qatar and Saudi Arabia and causing oil prices to rise to more than $108 per barrel.
In Lebanon, Israel launched a separate round of strikes targeting Al-Qard al-Hasan Association, a financial institution tied to Hezbollah. If successful, the attacks on Hezbollah would weaken one of the Iranian regime’s key allies.
Despite the Strait of Hormuz being effectively closed since the outset of the war in Iran, new reporting shows that about 90 ships with likely ties to Iran have managed to cross, evading Western sanctions and exporting millions of barrels of oil out of the region. (For more on the global importance of the Strait of Hormuz, read Niall Ferguson’s essay, “This Is How the Iran War Goes Global.”)
Top U.S. intelligence officials said the Iranian regime “appears to be intact but largely degraded” during back-to-back congressional hearings that began on Wednesday. The Trump administration’s foreign policy is under increased scrutiny after Joe Kent, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned on Tuesday out of opposition to the Iran war.
Confirmation hearings began Wednesday for Senator Markwayne Mullin, Trump’s pick to succeed Kristi Noem as Secretary of Homeland Security and lead the administration’s deportation strategy. While a decision has yet to be made, Senator Rand Paul said that confirmation is on track to occur quickly, beginning with a committee vote on Thursday.
Evanston mayor Daniel Biss won a fiercely contested Democratic primary for an Illinois House seat on Tuesday night, beating Kat Abughazaleh, a young digital content creator who has frequently criticized Israel. Illinois lieutenant governor Juliana Stratton also won the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, coming out on top in a race that became increasingly competitive following the retirement of Dick Durbin, the Senate’s longtime No. 2 Democrat.
A man was arrested on Tuesday after he was caught climbing into the enclosure of pygmy hippo Moo Deng at a Thai zoo. Moo Deng, who has become a viral sensation in the past year, was not harmed in the encounter.
Set your brackets, sports fans: March Madness begins today. At 12:15 p.m. ET, Texas Christian University will take on Ohio State in the first game of the 2026 NCAA tournament. (Until then, check out Joe Nocera’s piece on why “Paying College Athletes Has Created a Mess. It Was Still the Right Thing to Do.”)