Arms Control Wonk

By Jeffrey Lewis & Aaron Stein

What's Arms Control Wonk about?

The nuclear weapons, arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation podcast. Companion to the popular Arms Control Wonk blog (www.armscontrolwonk.com). Hosted by Jeffrey Lewis & Aaron Stein.

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Arms Control Wonk episodes:

04.17.2024
Iran's Once in a Lifetime Moment
And you may find yourself not complying with the IAEA And you may find yourself in a war in another part of the world And you may find yourself making a metaphor about an automobile And you may find yourself...
04.10.2024
Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times 2: A Conversation with William Alberque
William Alberque joins Jeffrey for a friendly and deep debate about the Russian Navy nuclear documents leaked to FT, covered in our previous episode. This is a fascinating discussion not only on the documents themselves, but what they imply...
03.10.2024
Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times
Max Seddon and Chris Cook with the Financial Times have written an excellent piece on leaked Russian Naval documents that FT saw, focused on thresholds for Russian nuclear use, especially in a war scenario with China. Jeffrey and Aaron go...
02.19.2024
Jeffrey Visits the Test Site
Road trip to Vegas. As part of an NGO transparency visit, NNSA opened up the Nevada Test Site to a group of international nuclear weapons experts, including one Dr. Jeffrey Lewis. Jeffrey goes through what he saw: P Tunnel, The...
01.17.2024
Russia Buys North Korean Missiles
Shoigu went shopping. Russia is buying KN-23 and KN-25 missiles from North Korea and launching them in support of its invasion of Ukraine. Imagery from on the ground clearly shows North Korean style solid-propellant missiles. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about...
11.28.2023
North Korea's New Satellite
North Korea finally got a reconnaissance satellite into orbit, after several failed prior attempts! While it is a little rough around the edges, every program has to start somewhere. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the implications of the DPRK's reconnaissance...
10.14.2023
The Reason We're all Still Here
Take a listen to the latest season of Jeffrey Lewis's podcast, The Reason We're All Still Here Far too often, governments behave like toddlers. They’re fickle. They don’t like to share. And good luck getting them to pay attention to any...
10.11.2023
Shenanigans in Novaya Zemlya
Looks like everyone is preparing for a party. Between Russia's potential un-signing of a nuclear test treaty, threats to test "if the United States does," and refurbishments at Novaya Zemlya, things aren't looking great for the longevity of nuclear test...
08.17.2023
Kim Jong Un's Excellent Adventure
Sam Lair joins the podcast to talk about Kim Jong Un's recent whirlwind tour of the North Korean Defense Industrial Base with Jeffrey and Scott. If you're into missiles, geolocation, and machine tools (and, if you listen to this podcast,...
08.07.2023
Oppenheimer
Jeffrey is joined by the illustrious Kelsey Atherton to discuss Christopher Nolan's film Oppenheimer, as well as the history and legacy of the titular man himself. Kelsey and Jeffrey dive into the choice to focus on Oppenheimer's own security legacy and...
08.05.2023
Hiroshima 2023
Jeffrey is back from Hiroshima, where he participated in a Track 2 nuclear dialogue. The outlook for near-term arms control is still grim. Jeffrey and Aaron unpack the G7 statements on disarmament that the Japanese representatives wanted to re-affirm, the...
07.18.2023
What the F*** Do They Think the Russians are Going to Shoot at Them?!
Germany has a gap that needs to be filled in the face of Russian threats. But this time it isn't Fulda, it is....the exoatmospheric layer of ballistic missile defenses? Jeffrey and Aaron try to understand Germany's decision to buy the...
07.06.2023
Failure to Launch
Jeffrey is back from Japan and North Korea's satellite-turned-submarine is back from the bottom of the ocean! North Korea's failed Chollima-1 space launcher and its payload, the Malligyong-1, failed to reach space on May 30. Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the Japanese...
06.12.2023
Shangri-la Dialogue with Ankit Panda
Ankit Panda joins Jeffrey by the every so fancy pool at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where they talk about competing speeches and messaging, the views on US-China competition from Southeast Asia, and about how Jeffrey didn't make any new...
05.21.2023
The CAT I is Out of the Bag
Ukraine is getting the SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missile, and that's raising a whole lot of questions about MTCR guidelines Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the history of the Missile Technology Control Regime, what it was meant to originally address, and...
05.06.2023
The Washington Declaration
President Yoon of South Korea recently visited the United States to talk nukes and Don McLean with President Biden. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through what the Declaration actually covers, how much was material and how much was fluff, and the...
04.15.2023
FINALLY. North Korea's Solid ICBM: The Hwasong-18
FINALLY. After almost a decade of hinting and teasing and parading fake empty canisters, North Korea has debuted its long-awated solid propellant ICBM. And the team have some questions about where the construction and testing sites were... Jeffrey, Scott,...
03.21.2023
Iran, the IAEA, and the Kingdom
The IAEA is doing a great job with the s**t we're handing them. A very jetlagged Jeffrey joins Aaron to talk about the IAEA and the very positive role that Director General Rafael Grossi has played in trying to hold...
03.09.2023
The Actual Demise of New START
New START has been in peril for years. The first episode of the pod was about the INF Treaty being in danger, and here we are, 8 years later, with almost no arms control treaties left. Maybe it is time...
02.10.2023
Another North Korean Missile Parade
Jeffrey, Aaron, and Scott say the unthinkable: we're a little tired of the parades. But we're glad the youthes are still ordering pizza and crowding around the computer to watch. North Korea paraded at least 15 ICBMs, including 4 that...
01.16.2023
One of Them is Wrong About That
Both plan on going first, but... President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea is being piled on for discussing South Korean pursuits of nuclear weapons (although what he said *exactly* was distorted a little). In the face of increasing pressure to...
12.21.2022
Detecting Missile Launches with Ionospheric Disturbances
Tyler Nighswander and Mike Nute have developed an incredible tool for detecting long-range missile and space launches by processing and visualizing ionospheric disturbances in GPS data. In one of the most fascinating and technically complex episodes of the ACW...
12.03.2022
How Sting Likes to Test
Jeeze that was a big missile. North Korea has tested another large ICBM, and this one was (another) doozy. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through modelling this missile, the potential theft of missile tech from Ukraine, Kim Jong Un's Bring Your...
11.13.2022
New New START or New Finish?
The Biden administration has been working to re-kindle New START talks with Russia, while working to deter Russian WMD use in Ukraine, in an era that increasingly appears to be about risk management instead of risk reduction. How do you...
11.10.2022
The Lake-Bed Missile
Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get...
10.22.2022
Another Crazy Train
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is giving people brain worms. Multiple terrible reports, citing oSiNt aNaLyStS, have recently been released and grossly overexaggerated the risk of nuclear weapons use around Ukraine. These reports, particularly about the "nuclear weapons convoy headed...
10.18.2022
The Janky Triad
Does North Korea have a triad? Perhaps a boostrapped, janky triad? How mature is their arsenal at this point? North Korea lobbed a Hwasong-12 over Japan after a week of smaller missile tests, and sparked a testy exchange of missile...
08.29.2022
Stealing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
What the heck is going on with the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Planet? Aaron and Jeffrey walk through the safety situation, the open source assessments of what is going on, and what appears to be a Russian strategy to....steal a power...
08.29.2022
Rules for Testing a Nuke
Why isn't North Korea testing nukes? What are the signals and signs that precede a test? Jeffrey and Aaron talk testing indicators, the logistics of detonating a nuclear device in North Korea, and the proper use of the Chatham House...
07.24.2022
The Last Days of the JCPOA
As the President visited various states in the Middle East, Jeffrey and Aaron sat down to eulogize the JCPOA renegotiation attempts as they slowly slide farther off the rails. Iran's programs continue and it looks like the U.S. is...
07.01.2022
The Wizards of Armageddon
Jeffrey and Aaron walk through a piece of foundational field canon, The Wizards of Armageddon by Fred Kaplan, discussing its coverage of institutional and personal decisionmaking, picking apart the concepts of deterrence and compellence, and discussing the seemingly crystalized debate on...
06.04.2022
Waiting for the Boom
After a brief hiatus due to Jeffrey's house catching on a lil' bit of fire, the Arms Control Wonk team is back to take a look at North Korea's triple missile launch and looming possible nuclear test. Jeffrey and Aaron...
05.02.2022
American ASAT Controls
The U.S. has unilaterally committed to not conducting destructive anti-satellite missile tests! Jeffrey and Aaron walk through what the U.S. has actually normatively committed to, what this means for potential future attempts at arms control in space, and some of...
04.16.2022
Carrier Killer: China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century
Gerry Doyle and Blake Herzinger join Jeffrey to talk about their new book: Carrier Killer: China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century. The group sits down to talk through China's DF-21D and DF-26...
03.24.2022
Test Three Missiles...
...get a pod. North Korea has conducted three (and, as I'm typing this, apparently four), ICBM (or ICBM element) tests, with two labelled as "satellite" system tests. Jeffrey and Scott talk through an OSINT Oreo: Good OSINT to identify ICBM tests,...
03.15.2022
The Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence
Should we be worried that Russia may intentionally use nuclear weapons in Ukraine? Jeffrey and Aaron discuss the role nuclear weapons, conspiracy theories, and misinformation play within conventional wars and escalation dynamics. Aaron posits the Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence,...
02.24.2022
Deterrence in Ukraine
Russia has invaded Ukraine, and some folks are arguing that Ukraine could've deterred Russia "if it had never given up nuclear weapons." But they never "had" nuclear weapons. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the control of nuclear weapons in Ukraine...
02.15.2022
Nuclear Security for Who?
Jasmine Owens, Lead Organizer and Policy Coordinator at the Physicians for Social Responsibility, joins Jeffrey to discuss social justice and nuclear weapons. Jasmine and Jeffrey attack the tough issues facing culture within the nuclear security field, embedded bias, and the...
02.08.2022
Networked Nonproliferation with Michal Onderco
Dr. Michal Onderco, Associate Professor of International Relations in the Department of Public Administration and Sociology at Erasmus University Rotterdam, joins Jeffrey to talk about his new book, Networked Nonproliferation: Making the NPT Permanent. Dr. Onderco and Jeffrey talk about...
01.25.2022
Gimme Shelter
After North Korea tested its new MaRV twice, a bunch of weird news stories suddenly started breaking about U.S. responses. Flights were grounded in parts of the West Coast, there was a shelter in place order up at the missile...
01.08.2022
North Korea's MaRV
North Korea tested what appears to be a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MaRV), which could support a tactical nuclear mission and subvert ballistic missile defenses. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through the difference between a MaRV and a hypersonic glide vehicle,...
10.27.2021
North Korea's Small SLBM
North Korea seems to be taking its new, small, solid propellant missiles to the sea, after taking them to the show. Perennial friend of the pod and aficionado of all things submarine Joseph Dempsey of the International Institute of...
10.19.2021
A Fractional Orbital Bombardment System with a Hypersonic Glide Vehicle??
This is a complicated one. According to Demetri Sevastopulo at the Financial Times, China tested something that sounds a whole lot like FOBS with an HGV. Something that orbited the globe and dropped a hypersonic glide vehicle against a target. ...
10.07.2021
Glide or Die
Glide or die, baby. The North Koreans, on a real cavalcade of missile debuts reminiscent of 2017, have tested what they claim to be a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). Which means they are just checking off their list of goals,...
09.18.2021
All Aboard the Missile Train
Put another pot of coffee on because it is launch week again. North Korean launched two missiles off of the back of a train this week, right as the president of South Korea watched their own tests of a submarine launched...
09.15.2021
Not Lackin' LACMs
The DPRK tested a cruise missile, but this time it was a big one. Like "INF Treaty" big, if that term still meant anything. The DPRK announced that it launched a 1500 km range cruise missile, after months of hints...
09.09.2021
Boiling Fish at Yongbyon
Looks like Yongbyon is running a little hot. The IAEA has announced that it believes the DPRK is conducting a plutonium reprocessing campaign at Yongbyon. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss why the DPRK would want to do this. What could the...
09.03.2021
It's Always Cloudy in Novaya Zemlya
Jeffrey and his team fear no cloud. Working with Capella Space to acquire cloud-piercing synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, the MIIS team has been monitoring eternally-cloudy Novaya Zemlya, Russia, for evidence of Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile tests. Evidence pointed to the Burevestnik...
08.27.2021
Wasted Opportunities with the JCPOA
Bad news abounds for Iranian and US returns to JCPOA compliance. Aaron and Jeffrey talk through the frustration around breakout time requirements, the timidity of the Biden administration, and the shortfalls of the wait-and-see approach. Links of Note: The...
08.13.2021
A SECOND SILO FIELD
Matt Korda and Hans Kristensen with the Federation of American Scientists have tracked down what appears to be a second field of missile silos near Hami, Xinjiang. Aaron, Jeffrey, and Scott gather up to discuss the rapidly increasing number...

What's Arms Control Wonk about?

Download our free app to listen on your phone

Arms Control Wonk episodes:

Iran's Once in a Lifetime Moment

Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times 2: A Conversation with William Alberque

Russian Nuclear Doctrine in the Financial Times

Jeffrey Visits the Test Site

Russia Buys North Korean Missiles

North Korea's New Satellite

The Reason We're all Still Here

Shenanigans in Novaya Zemlya

Kim Jong Un's Excellent Adventure

Oppenheimer

Hiroshima 2023

What the F*** Do They Think the Russians are Going to Shoot at Them?!

Failure to Launch

Shangri-la Dialogue with Ankit Panda

The CAT I is Out of the Bag

The Washington Declaration

FINALLY. North Korea's Solid ICBM: The Hwasong-18

Iran, the IAEA, and the Kingdom

The Actual Demise of New START

Another North Korean Missile Parade

One of Them is Wrong About That

Detecting Missile Launches with Ionospheric Disturbances

How Sting Likes to Test

New New START or New Finish?

The Lake-Bed Missile

Another Crazy Train

The Janky Triad

Stealing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

Rules for Testing a Nuke

The Last Days of the JCPOA

The Wizards of Armageddon

Waiting for the Boom

American ASAT Controls

Carrier Killer: China's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles and Theater of Operations in the early 21st Century

Test Three Missiles...

The Bunga Bunga Theory of Deterrence

Deterrence in Ukraine

Nuclear Security for Who?

Networked Nonproliferation with Michal Onderco

Gimme Shelter

North Korea's MaRV

North Korea's Small SLBM

A Fractional Orbital Bombardment System with a Hypersonic Glide Vehicle??

Glide or Die

All Aboard the Missile Train

Not Lackin' LACMs

Boiling Fish at Yongbyon

It's Always Cloudy in Novaya Zemlya

Wasted Opportunities with the JCPOA

A SECOND SILO FIELD