Scottie Scheffler is seven shots behind Daniel Berger after Round One at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but betting markets have him at nearly identical odds to the leader—six-to-one versus five-to-one—with two-point-seven-four million dollars poured into his contracts this week. Berger just fired a bogey-free sixty-three in his first fully healthy event since breaking his finger eight months ago, while twenty-five-year-old Ludvig Aberg sits at minus-six with a sixty-six that came in conditions two strokes harder than the morning wave. The market might be overvaluing Scheffler's brand over the actual scoreboard, or Bay Hill's brutal history of rewarding cumulative grind over hot starts means the World Number One is exactly where sharps want him.