Bad Bad News

Lots of data continues to develop. One minute we see the stock market racing up at an amazing momentum and the next minute it’s headed downward and fast. One data set tells us everything is going to be okay and the next says quite the opposite. When we are in the midst of unprecedented times, this will be the case. There is lots and lots of noise. Don’t let it drown out the important factors. 

This week I decided to take a deep dive into housing. I wanted to examine rent debt, mortgage rates, and homeownership by generations, especially as it relates to Millennials and Generation Z. But first, we’ll have our economic update and later we’ll dive into mortgage schemes in Europe as well. I hope you enjoy this episode! 

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Crisis after crisis after crisis. That’s the best way to put what’s been going on over the past several weeks in the US. We are experiencing a vaccine shortage in the midst of a pandemic with different variants now surfacing. Questions like will Covid be something that will never going away? It’s too early to tell is what many epidemiologists have stated. All that aside, it’s been interesting for me to see two different worlds, one in where investors believe wholeheartedly that this market high will continue, and another world where everyday working Americans are tired and losing hope. The war on Wall Street that we talked about last time, is something we need to draw our attentions to more. Compared to other countries, Americans are ranked among the most overworked compared to other developed nations. At some point this does take a toll on our society. 

So now, put this together will an energy crisis that is affecting the Southern United States. Many states experiencing rolling blackouts because of a disastrous winter storm. Parts of Texas reaching temperatures colder than Alaska. This is an issue that we need to examine, because it has lasting economic effects. But before we dive into that, let’s look at a commercial real estate update. Later, we’ll take a look at what’s going on in Europe. 

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Check out the video recordings of our interviews on our Bad Bad News Podcast YouTube Channel!!

I’m a week late, but I think it worked out better this way because of all the unprecedented events we’ve seen happen just within the three weeks. In addition to the global pandemic, the never ending political divide in the US, the increasing income inequality, we now have somewhat a war on Wall Street happening. You may feel down just thinking about all of this. I mean, come on, this is called the Bad Bad News podcast! But I’ve said this time and time again, there are opportunities in every crisis. I truly believe in that. The first step to solving any problem is admitting, or in this case, identifying that there is one. That’s what I’m here for. 

I’m super happy to say that we have not one but two interviews in the podcast surrounding big events that have taken over many headlines! The biggest question on a lot of people’s minds is what happened with GameStop? I will be getting into that with financial advisor Mr. Leydar Aiden Murillo. Another big topic that should be on people’s mind is inflation. We’ll be talking to Dr. Mark Pingle about inflation and what we should expect to see. You can view both of these interviews on YouTube on the Bad Bad News Podcast Channel! And for our ever growing European audience, we will be talking about Italy and France and what’s going on there. 

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I know it’s already been a rollercoaster of the first couple of weeks of the new year. I know everyone is talking about the Capital Riots that took place on January 6th and the 2nd impeachment of President Trump. 2 unprecedented events in a matter of a week. I’ve been wondering if there truly is a way to find unity, again. I hope we do, because I know we are stronger, together. Covid and its impacts will most likely be our new normal for a few years. Unfortunately, or fortunately, my fellow Americans, we are not alone in this disarray of our current political and economic climate. All across the world, there are many countries facing similar things. As you know in this blog, I have a segment dedicated to Europe and as such we will be exploring Europe and how they are faring in the first few weeks of the New Year as well. 

There’s been quite a lot of economic news to sift through in the last few weeks and I want to touch on as many as I can. I’ve received countless questions about the unemployment report that came out, so I will discuss that. But I also want to spend a bit of time talking about the current state of our market in the US while also reviewing major asset classes that have ballooned over the past year. I’ve seen many forecasts for the year ahead and want to share some of them with you. Lastly, I will talk about some interesting real estate trends in Europe. 

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As we shift into the holiday season, many of us aren’t as aware of all that’s been going on in the financial markets. It’s the nature of the season. We should be focusing on the cheer that comes with this merry season. But, the economy never sleeps and that’s probably for the best. We’ve gotten a lot of mixed signals from many economic indicators. We’ve also received some much needed good news about vaccines becoming available soon. But as I’ve stated in the past, the recovery cannot truly begin until people feel safe to go back to work, school, shop, and go about their lives in a somewhat normal fashion. And yes, there will be a so-called “new” normal, but it is my belief that with every disaster or challenge, lots of good can come out of it. Lots of great minds are currently at work and I have no doubt that things will get better, as long as we can identify and admit that there are problems that need fixing. 

In this week’s episode, we’ll start off as we always do with an economic recap. I had the great pleasure to talk with Mr. John Boyd Jr. about the commercial real estate market and the impact Covid-19 has had on it. Finally, we end with the European View where we look at the European Union’s current budget hold out. 

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It seems as if everything has calmed down over the last couple weeks. We’re hearing more and more about the rising Covid numbers and less about the election. We’re also hearing more from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the status of the economy and how he believes a recovery is going to take a long time. This is what I also believe. The stock market is in its own world and does not accurately reflect what is being experienced on Main Street. People are still struggling to make ends meet and are awaiting another round of stimulus checks, with many worried when the CDC eviction moratorium ends in January. Many are also facing astronomical medical bills due to their Covid diagnosis. But the one indicator that seems to be not telling the whole story is unemployment. We’ve seen a gradual decline over the last few months, but over 10 million are still unemployed. With the rapid technological changes occurring, many will be forced to learn new skills and will have to remain out of the workforce until they are able to acquire those skills. On top of this, those skills are not cheap to acquire, meaning more people will go into debt. This is the unfortunate truth that we need to realize and start figuring out how to deal with it.

As always we’ll start with a quick economic update. We then have the opportunity to talk with Dr. Florina Salaghe, a professor at Benedictine University, about unemployment and what’s really happening within the numbers we are given. We will not have a European View segment this time around but we will next time. 

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The Election. That’s been the biggest story these days. On Saturday, November 7th, the race was called and showed that Joe Biden will become the next President of the United States. President Trump has not accepted the results, nor do I foresee him doing so. Many of his supporters have called out election fraud. I can say that living in Nevada, that there have been several friends of mine that have told me that their votes did not count. Meaning that when they went on the website to track their votes, it was not counted. Does this indicate widespread election fraud? Or is it just because all the votes have not been counted yet? I don’t know. I’d hope that our election process is fair and that the people’s voices have been heard in the choosing of our next president. I believe the process to be fair, so I’m hoping that this discrepancy is due to the vote tally not being completed yet. 

But one thing that cannot be understated is the massive division we are facing today in the United States. We cannot forget that over 70 million people voted for President Trump while another 74 million voted for Joe Biden. It's been an interesting experience for me. I’ve had many friends on both sides “coming out” to me as voting for one candidate over the other, afraid of consequences for doing so. And though some of these friends I disagree with politically, they are and will remain my friends. This division is not healthy. But the change starts at the individual level. I ask everyone who has a friend or family member on the so-called “other side” to reach out to them and see how they are doing. Refrain from having a political conversation and instead have a friend to friend or family member to family member conversation. I can guarantee you that there is more that unites us than divides us. Once we see that, we’ll be able to move forward to a path of greatness that lies ahead for this country. But until then, the fighting and bickering will continue. 

Now, this blog post will be shorter than previous ones. I, like everyone else, have been glued to my tv and trying to figure out what will happen next. Due to this, I picked a few economic updates I thought were important to bring to everyone’s attention. I also sat down and talked with Dr. Clemens Kownatzki about the election and its effect on the markets moving forward. 

If you enjoy listening to this podcast, please consider donating to our efforts at our Buzzsprout page! 

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As the Covid-19 pandemic continues to spread, the uncertainty of an economy recovery continues to increase. When will the economy jump back? Will a stimulus package ever get passed? Will a Trump presidency bring an economic recovery? Will a Biden presidency? My honest opinion is that it won’t matter who wins when it comes down to the economy. Though, I still believe that everyone should vote. But that is beside the point. Everyone keeps pointing out the different tax plans and although there is merit to that argument, the fact of the matter is that until we can stabilize the employment level and have the pending eviction and poverty crisis under control, taxes won’t be something we can have a meaningful conversation about. Let’s focus on stopping the bleeding first. 

We’ll first look at explaining the impending housing crisis, assess corporate health, and take a look at unemployment. Then we have the pleasure of talking with Ms. Kylie Rowe about the job market during the Great Recession and lessons everyone can apply to the job market today. Finally, we end with the European View, where we’ll be assessing the labor market in Europe and comparing it to what we are witnessing in the US currently.

If you enjoy listening to our podcast, please consider donating to our efforts at our Buzzsprout page. Thank you!

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The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines chaos as a state of utter confusion. What the American people are currently experiencing is unprecedented chaos. Chaos that we haven’t seen on this scale in my lifetime or my parents’ lifetime. With what seems like a never ending news cycle, it’s hard to keep up with all the developments. Many, including myself, thought that the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg was going to be our last surprise before the election. But 2020, like with everything else, had something else in mind. President Trump tested positive for Covid-19, then became hospitalized, and then released all within 3-4 days. Of course, we send our well wishes to the President, First Lady, and everyone who is suffering from the effects of Covid-19. The chaos of not knowing how President Trump was doing sent every media outlet into a frenzy. Twitter became the only way we could see how the President was doing. Tweets became more essential than we had seen in the past. 

This all of course has big effects on the stock market. The Dow Jones closed down 375 points on Tuesday because President Trump tweeted that he didn't want to keep negotiating a stimulus package. We’ve moved so far away from looking at fundamentals and assessing asset prices that way. The words in a tweet mean more than the traditional way of valuing assets. Don’t get me wrong, the words of a president is important especially when he calls off negotiations for a stimulus package, but why did we let it get to this point?

As always we’ll start with looking at some new economic data that recently came out and make sense of that. We’ll then dive into the chaos surrounding both the stimulus and the election. Then we talk to Mr. Leyder Aiden Murillo, a financial advisor, about how people can prepare for what’s to come in the markets. We finally end as we always do with the European View and this week we look at how Europe and other countries view the US. 

If you enjoy listening, please consider donating to our efforts at www.badbadnews.buzzsprout.com. Thank you! 

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The last 2 weeks has shown us that volatility is still present in the market. It’s hard to not point out that the political risks in the US are rising at levels we haven’t experienced in the recent past. But, like with everything in 2020, the word unprecedented comes to mind. A divisive election is coming up, the Supreme Court Justice seat is trying to be filled before the election, and in all honesty, it feels like it’s one big circus. I keep asking myself, how did we get here? Political risk is what investors are usually worried about in developing countries, not in developed countries like the US. But, here we are. 

We’ll start off with looking at newly released economic data. Then, we explore the impending poverty crisis, how it will shape the future, and what we need to do to avoid it. We then jump into the European View, where this week we discuss how Europe is responding to the Covid crisis with Dr. Dimitra Papadovisilaki, an assistant professor of Finance at Lake Forest College.

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