Behavioural Finance with Simon Russell

Anthony and I discuss the dimensions of Daniel Kahneman's legacy; the man, his work, and his impact. The conversation ranges from how Kahneman's childhood interaction with a Nazi officer spurred his work on happiness, how Anthony and I read and re-read the books written by and about Kahneman, the different ways we have each applied the lessons we have learnt from him, and what Kahneman's death will mean going forward.

Negotiations can be difficult; it’s not a perfect science. But there are some things we can do to make them run more smoothly. In this conversation with negotiations & mediation guru Elise Margow we discuss:

* Common negotiating mistakes that novice negotiators make, and those made by more experienced negotiators.

* Myths about negotiations that can get in the way, such as that negotiations need to be a compromise, as well as unhelpful assumptions about how happy each party should feel after the negotiation.

* Tips for building trust, using anchors, managing reciprocity and dealing with difficult situations & difficult negotiators (whether they be table-thumping aggressive-types who storm out of the room, or quiet introverts who are reluctant to express themselves).

Theoretically, investment committees (ICs) perform an important governance function. But sometimes they misfire. What can go wrong? And what can be done to ensure that they function as intended?

In this podcast I discuss a few of Raewyn Williams' observations from her work with ICs. I also throw in some of my reflections from the psychological research about group decision-making, and from my work with professional investment teams.

We cover some of the problems with the way chairs manage meetings, the different roles IC members play compared with their day jobs, the need for clarity around the purpose of each meeting, and the pro's and con's of different types of investment-related jargon.

The recording is directly relevant for anyone who’s currently part of an IC, or who presents to one. More generally, it should also be useful for anyone who comes together in teams to make investment-related decisions.

In this conversation with Andrew Rutter we discuss a handful of retirement-related issues that are drawn from the intersection of his and my books on the topic.

We cover:

* Ways to “reframe” retirement. Why thinking about it as one of a series of life transitions can help.

* Retirement mindsets. Do we need to wait ‘til retirement to enjoy life? How should we think about trade-offs with our time & happiness?

* Leaving a legacy. Should we be concerned about what goes on our tombstone, or just let it go?

* Some challenges. What if you want to pass on your wisdom, but nobody wants to listen? For whose benefit is this wisdom transfer?

* The role of planning. How detailed and specific should a plan be, versus flexible and vague? Should it be short or long-term?

* Understanding motivation. Do I really need to know why I like watching the waves crash on the beach, or feel satisfaction from climbing a mountain?

The conversation is relevant for super funds, financial advisers and people thinking about their own future retirement.

Whether we like it or not, we’re all in the business of predictions. It’s not just economists who predict future interest rates, or pollsters who predict election outcomes, or investments analysts that predict a company’s EPS. We know these types of predictions are difficult and can be unreliable, but as much as some people would claim otherwise, we can’t avoid making predictions.

To manage risk, companies need to make predictions about what events could take place, super funds need to make predictions about what investment strategies will succeed, and financial advisers need to make predictions about how clients will respond to different service offerings.

We’re also making predictions about ourselves, such the age at which we might want to retire and how long we might live. We will inevitably get these things wrong. But how can we predict better? How can we make predictions that are more useful?

In this session, Stephen Huppert and I discuss:

1. How different types of thinking about the future suit different scenarios.

2. The tricks and traps of scenario analyses.

3. How and when to assign probabilities.

4. Whether Bill Gates is right about predicting the future.

5. What we can learn about prediction from the Bladerunner movie.

In this conversation with Conor Wynn we discuss how people often ignore the behavioural element when thinking about corporate change, how people are influenced by cues from the physical structure of their workplace, and the behavioural barriers that exist to people sharing diverse views and opinions at meetings. Also discussed: when do you need to be present for team meetings? Are we all now putting on a performance? Will technology result in us contracting for outputs? Is working from home, by ignoring the impact on others, a selfish choice?

In this conversation with communications guru Amber Daines we discuss tips and traps for Powerpoint presentations, charts, videos, emails, web sites and more. In Amber's view a 5-minute video is probably 3 minutes too long and a Powerpoint slide deck should ideally be devoid of bullet points.The focus of the discussion is examples that are relevant for superannuation funds, financial advice and other financial services providers.

Mike van de Graaf and I discuss lessons from real life and from recent Hollywood movies about how to communicate risk in a way that engages key stakeholders. Mike is a seasoned risk professional who is currently General Manager for Risk & Performance Management at Treasury Corp of Victoria. He is also the Melbourne Co-director of the Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP). In the discussion we cover questions like what are the biggest challenges in communicating risk effectively? How to communicate low-probability events? How best to establish credibility? When to be specific versus stay at a high level? How best to get cut-through? The discussion is relevant for risk managers, as well as for professional investors and corporate decision-makers.

In this conversation with Conor Wynn we discuss his PhD research related to cultural change at a large engineering firm. The discussion covers the role of incentives versus personality & identity; the use of simple decision-making heuristics versus detailed analysis; the need to follow procedures versus being creative and open to change; and the role of social influence and stress. The discussion is relevant for anyone who has a business problem for which cultural change is required.

In this conversation with Nick Hilton we discuss the lessons he learned from developing a successful set of digital advice tools for a major super fund. We discuss how to present retirement projections, how to allow members to understand risk, and how to encourage them to execute and implement the advice they receive. As it turns out, changing the name of a button can make a big difference. This conversation is relevant for businesses which have cohorts of relatively unadvised clients: super funds, wealth management, banks and insurers.