In this episode of the Independent Voter Podcast, Chad and Cara dive into the exploding world of political prediction markets with special guest Chris Gerlacher of Prediction News—unpacking how platforms like Kalshi and crypto-based markets are reshaping how insiders gauge races from California governor to New York City mayor. Chad and Cara also highlight Shawn Griffiths’ latest election reform roundup at ivn.us, covering new signature drives in Oregon, Nevada, and Oklahoma to end taxpayer-funded closed primaries and expand rights for independent voters, as well as the gritty reality of signature gathering and ballot access. Plus, Cara breaks down a Politico gerrymandering poll that ignores independent voters and shares how unlikely allies—from Democrats to MAGA Republicans—can find common ground on fixing the system, even in a hyper-polarized era.

Listen to more episodes and join the conversation at IVN.us and olasmedia.com

00:00:00 - Welcome Back & IVP Updates

00:01:29 - Introducing Chris Gerlacher & Prediction Markets

00:03:34 - How Prediction Markets Outperform Polls

00:04:14 - California Governor Odds: Swalwell, Porter, Steyer

00:06:21 - How Political Trading Works

00:09:32 - Gambling Concerns, Safeguards & Forecasting Value

00:13:27 - When Candidates Bet on Themselves

00:19:19 - Independent Voter Growth & State Reform Movements

00:32:14 - Signature Gathering, Costs & Citizen Power

00:43:18 - Cross-Ideology Dialogue & Closing Reflections

 

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