Macro Mechanics

Between Signs and Silences: The Rhythm of the Debt Ceiling


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The United States debt ceiling emerged in 1917 as an administrative mechanism to streamline the financing of the war effort, but it has evolved into a political "brinkmanship" instrument that generates anxiety. On January 2, 2025, following the suspension provided for in the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, the limit was redefined at $36.1 trillion, and the US Treasury Department immediately resorted to "extraordinary measures"—accounting tricks that delay, but do not cancel, the exhaustion of maneuvering room until the dreaded "X-Date"—the date on which these maneuvers will be exhausted, and the United States will be left without liquidity to meet its obligations, risking a technical default.

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Macro MechanicsBy Mike Ross