According to the Générations 1.5°C study, a brown building—one with high carbon emissions, poor energy efficiency, and outdated systems—could lose more than 80% of its market value within a decade. The study highlights several key factors driving this decline:

1. Regulatory & Compliance Risks

• Governments are tightening energy and emissions regulations, and non-compliant buildings will face higher carbon taxes, penalties, and retrofitting requirements.
• Carbon pricing is expected to increase significantly, making high-emission buildings more expensive to own and operate.
• New building codes will favor net-zero and low-carbon buildings, leaving brown buildings economically uncompetitive.

2. Rising Operational Costs & Energy Prices

• Brown buildings consume significantly more energy due to inefficient heating, cooling, and insulation.
• The report shows that brown buildings use up to 50% more natural gas and 26% more total energy than high-performance alternatives.
• Future carbon taxes and rising fossil fuel prices will make these buildings increasingly costly to operate.

3. Investor & Financing Pressure

• Institutional investors and lenders are moving away from high-carbon assets, making financing brown buildings more difficult and expensive.
• Banks and funds are prioritizing green buildings with better risk-adjusted returns, reducing liquidity for brown buildings in the market.
• The report suggests that a brown building may struggle to secure financing as sustainable investments become the new standard.

4. Market & Tenant Demand Shifts

• Tenants and buyers are increasingly demanding sustainable buildings with lower energy costs and healthier indoor environments.
• The report highlights that green buildings offer 30% lower energy costs and significantly reduce emissions, making them more attractive to occupants.
• A brown building may experience higher vacancy rates, leading to declining rental income and lower asset valuation.

5. The High Cost of Delayed Retrofitting

• Brown buildings will require expensive retrofits to meet future standards.
• The study estimates that a building retrofit to comply with new energy codes could cost millions, and failure to upgrade could lead to functional obsolescence.
• The financial modeling suggests that after seven years, the cost of retrofitting could outweigh the building’s remaining value, accelerating devaluation.

The study’s financial modeling shows that:

• The cash flow for brown buildings drops to 85% of expected returns if early risks materialize.
• If regulatory or energy cost risks intensify, the value can plummet below 20% of its original worth after seven to ten years.
• In contrast, green buildings maintain and even increase their value over the same period due to lower risk exposure, higher tenant demand, and financing advantages.

Brown buildings are rapidly becoming stranded assets in the real estate market. Without significant upgrades, they face:
✅ Regulatory penalties
✅ Higher operating costs
✅ Investor flight & financing restrictions
✅ Tenant and buyer disinterest

On the other hand, green buildings are positioned as long-term, resilient investments, benefiting from:
🌿 Lower energy costs (30-50% savings)
📈 Stronger valuation protection
🔋 Better financing & incentives

The study ultimately confirms that investing in sustainable buildings today is the best strategy to prevent massive value erosion in the coming decade.

Thank you for tuning in! 🌍✨ If you enjoyed this episode and want to be part of the journey towards a better planet, make sure to follow the podcast and connect with me on LinkedIn.

Let’s keep the conversation going on how we can build a more sustainable and thriving world together. 🚀♻️

🔗 Follow me on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alainbelangerbeyonders/

🎙️ Subscribe to the podcast: 

See you in the next episode! 🌱💡