IBF On Demand

Bias & Behavioral Heuristics In Forecasting


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IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecasting

This week I talk to Jonathan Karelse of North Find Management about how I am 100% perfect and other people are biased and wrong.

02:37 I'm not biased but you definitely are

06:00 Jonathan's research into identifying bias in Demand Planners

08:34 The Dunning Kreuger effects

10:11 The representative heuristic

11:11 The availability heuristic

12:46 Intertemporal discounting

13:44 The shocking extent to which people are biased

14:20  An example of the framing effect/anchor bias

19:15 Overconfidence - the most insidious of all biases

21:40 Cluster illusion - the Achille's Heel of Demand Planners

23:48 How to overcome our own biases

28:40 Don't add or use what cannot be measured

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IBF On DemandBy IBF0 Eric Wilson CPF

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