July 30, 2025

Big Beautiful Trump Trades: Rare Earths & Lithium w/ TD Cowens' John Miller & David Deckelbaum

1 hour 7 minutes

In this episode, I'm joined by two top analysts from TD Cowen, John Miller and David Deckelbaum, to discuss the evolving landscape for critical minerals, renewable energy, and commodity markets under the Trump administration's "Big Beautiful Bill."

John provides valuable insights from Washington DC, exploring the significant shifts in U.S. government policy related to energy dominance, critical minerals, and recent legislative changes. We discuss the impacts of the administration's executive orders, permitting hurdles, and how the Department of Defense (DOD) is stepping in to strategically support domestic critical mineral projects.

David shares his expertise from New York, giving an investor-focused perspective on how these policy changes are affecting key equities in lithium, rare earths, and energy markets. We dig into the sophisticated recent deal between MP Materials and the DOD, discuss the dynamics affecting lithium pricing and oversupply concerns, and explore implications for lithium companies such as Albemarle, Lithium Americas, Lithium Argentina, Piedmont, and Lithium Royalty Corp.

We also cover broader investment themes, including whether the recent market recovery in commodity and battery-related stocks has staying power, and how developments in AI, robotics, and trade policy with China could shape the market narrative going forward.

This conversation is designed to help retail investors better understand the complex dynamics at play in the critical minerals sector, providing context for informed investment decisions.

If you found this interview valuable, please subscribe, like, and comment.

CHAPTERS 📖

(00:00) Introduction and Commodity Market Rebound

(04:03) Trump Administration's Energy Policy Toolkit

(09:37) Permitting Challenges and Renewable Project Delays

(14:11) DOE Loan Program Office and Energy Dominance Financing

(19:18) Expiration Timeline for Critical Minerals Tax Credit

(20:37) DOD Funding for Critical Minerals and Defense Partnerships

(31:33) Heavy Rare Earth Sourcing and Recycling Solutions

(41:39) David's Coverage of Key Lithium Companies

(48:02) Lithium Market Interest and Short Covering Trends

(55:40) Trump-Elon Relations and China Trade Deal Implications

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Links 🌍

RK Equity Website: https://rkequity.com/

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel

Podcast:

Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq

X (Twitter):

Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull

Rodney: https://x.com/RodneyHooper13

Matt: https://x.com/matt_fernley

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DISCLAIMER

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Rodney and Howard are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity’s website https://www.rkequity.com

Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein

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