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It wasn’t a war plan. It wasn’t a battle plan. It was simply a broadside unloaded on the source of American prosperity, the trading partners who buy our stuff and fund our deficits. If anyone still thought President Donald Trump was bluffing when he said he’d slap tariffs on all of America’s imports, the cards are now on the table, and none of them are jokers. In a presentation at the windswept White House Rose Garden, Trump announced 10% tariffs on all U.S. imports, and double-digit tariffs for some 60 countries and territories.
The news sent stock markets tumbling, and had economists issuing prepared notes warning that the tariffs would crush domestic consumption as well as U.S. trade, and were likely to plunge the U.S. into a recession by the end of 2025.
Chinese goods will face a new 34% tariff, on top of the 20% tariff Trump already imposed. Imports from the European Union will face 20% duties, Japan will face a 24% tax, and Indian exports will pay a 26% tax. Vietnamese goods face a 46% tariff. Canada and Mexico largely escaped new tariffs, but it wasn’t clear if a 25% levy on foreign-made cars would apply to the two U.S. neighbors.
China’s Commerce Ministry called the tariffs “a typical act of unilateral bullying” and vowed a stiff response.
Trump was clear that the tariffs were the start of a new era of trade protectionism.
“For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike,” Trump said. “But it is not going to happen anymore.”
No new tariffs were announced for Canada, leaving just Trump’s existing 25% tax on all goods that aren’t part of the existing U.S., Canada, and Mexico free trade agreement, a 25% tax on steel and aluminum, and a 10% tax on energy. It wasn’t clear if Trump’s new 25% tariff on automobiles would apply to Canada and Mexico. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada will soon retaliate “with purpose and with force.”
Economists say the tariffs are likely to push the U.S. into a recession.
“We’re gonna have to go through a little tough love maybe,” Trump said in bare acknowledgment of the pain the tariffs will likely inflict on consumers.
Before Trump’s announcement, the European Union was standing firm: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament on Tuesday that the EU was prepared to hit service exports, including financial services and big tech. Europe would negotiate “from a position of strength,” von der Leyen said. “Europe holds a lot of cards, from trade to technology to the size of our market. But this strength is also built on our readiness to take firm countermeasures. All instruments are on the table.”
“Rather than fixing the rules that many U.S. trading partners admittedly took advantage of to their own benefit, Trump has chosen to blow up the system governing international trade,” Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University, told The New York Times.
The first signs of rebellion emerged in the Senate, where Democrats were joined by four GOP senators, Rand Paul, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and former majority leader Mitch McConnell to pass a bill voiding Trump’s use of emergency powers to place tariffs on Canada. “Tariffs are a terrible mistake,” Sen. Paul said ahead of the vote. “They don’t work. They will lead to higher prices.” The bill may die in the House or, as many suspect, Trump may just lift tariffs piecemeal, by whim.
It’s that uncertainty that is bolstering fears of a recession.
None of this comes as a surprise to the brains at the world’s most successful investment bank, Goldman Sachs. In a research note distributed this week, Goldman said the prospect of a trade war fueled by Trump’s tariffs has nearly doubled the chance of a U.S. recession to 35%, from its previous 20% probability. The bank also said it expects inflation to rise to 3.5%, GDP growth to drop to 1%, and unemployment to hit 4.5%, while interests rates could drop to 3.5%–3.75%. Just a week after Trump’s election, Goldman forecast GDP to grow by 2.7% in 2025.
JPMorganChase says the tariffs amount to a $400 billion tax increase, the largest since 1968, when Lyndon Johnson was president. Prices will rise by 1% to 1.5% this year, the bank said, adding that “the resulting hit to purchasing power could take real disposable personal income growth in the second and third quarters into negative territory.”
EY chief economist Gregory Daco says the tariffs will create stagflation—when the economy shrinks or stays stuck, but prices rise—dragging GDP growth down by a massive 1 percentage point in 2025, and a further 0.4% in 2026, while pushing inflation up by a percentage point. That may sound a bit abstract, but as Daco noted: “For the median household, this would represent an annual income loss of $690 while for families in the bottom quintile the loss would surpass $1,000.”
Never before has an hour of Presidential rhetoric cost so many people so much. Markets continue to move after my previous tweet. The best estimate of the loss from tariff policy is now is closer to $30 trillion or $300,000 per family of four.
— Lawrence H. Summers (@LHSummers) April 3, 2025One company that will get slammed by Trump’s tariffs is Harley Davidson. The iconic U.S. motorbike maker would see the cost of its basic Road Glide touring model nearly quintuple in some European countries. Already, the $28,000 bike costs $77,000 in Denmark, when the country’s 25% value-added tax and 150% luxury tax are added. Tariffs imposed by the EU would bring the price of the road glide to $124,000, The Wall Street Journal reported. To preserve its home market, Harley wants hefty tariffs on imported motorcycles.
One of the oddest tariff targets was the Heard and McDonald Islands, remote volcanic islands that belong to Australia and are home to macaroni penguins, Antarctic fur seals and the endangered black-browed albatross—but no humans.
So how did Trump come up with the tariff numbers? Financial writer James Surowiecki figured it out: The White House took the trade deficit that America runs with a nation and divided it by the value of the exports that country sent into the United States. Then, because Trump said he was being “kind,” that number was cut in half.
Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.
So we… https://t.co/PBjF8xmcuv
Ultimately, it’s hard to know how seriously to take the Trump tariffs. Are they just for show, and will genuflection bring them to an end?
The Usual SuspectsI have asked the @FCC’s Enforcement Bureau to open an investigation into Disney & ABC.
While Disney started as an iconic American company, it recently went all in on DEI.
I am concerned that their DEI practices may violate FCC prohibitions on invidious forms of discrimination. pic.twitter.com/E31QwwFcxA
What do you think of Big Business This Week? Tell us how you really feel in this survey!
TrumplandiaGet Big Business This Week in your inbox every week—and read it before everybody else! Sign up today.
Elon’s World
By CheddarIt wasn’t a war plan. It wasn’t a battle plan. It was simply a broadside unloaded on the source of American prosperity, the trading partners who buy our stuff and fund our deficits. If anyone still thought President Donald Trump was bluffing when he said he’d slap tariffs on all of America’s imports, the cards are now on the table, and none of them are jokers. In a presentation at the windswept White House Rose Garden, Trump announced 10% tariffs on all U.S. imports, and double-digit tariffs for some 60 countries and territories.
The news sent stock markets tumbling, and had economists issuing prepared notes warning that the tariffs would crush domestic consumption as well as U.S. trade, and were likely to plunge the U.S. into a recession by the end of 2025.
Chinese goods will face a new 34% tariff, on top of the 20% tariff Trump already imposed. Imports from the European Union will face 20% duties, Japan will face a 24% tax, and Indian exports will pay a 26% tax. Vietnamese goods face a 46% tariff. Canada and Mexico largely escaped new tariffs, but it wasn’t clear if a 25% levy on foreign-made cars would apply to the two U.S. neighbors.
China’s Commerce Ministry called the tariffs “a typical act of unilateral bullying” and vowed a stiff response.
Trump was clear that the tariffs were the start of a new era of trade protectionism.
“For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike,” Trump said. “But it is not going to happen anymore.”
No new tariffs were announced for Canada, leaving just Trump’s existing 25% tax on all goods that aren’t part of the existing U.S., Canada, and Mexico free trade agreement, a 25% tax on steel and aluminum, and a 10% tax on energy. It wasn’t clear if Trump’s new 25% tariff on automobiles would apply to Canada and Mexico. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada will soon retaliate “with purpose and with force.”
Economists say the tariffs are likely to push the U.S. into a recession.
“We’re gonna have to go through a little tough love maybe,” Trump said in bare acknowledgment of the pain the tariffs will likely inflict on consumers.
Before Trump’s announcement, the European Union was standing firm: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament on Tuesday that the EU was prepared to hit service exports, including financial services and big tech. Europe would negotiate “from a position of strength,” von der Leyen said. “Europe holds a lot of cards, from trade to technology to the size of our market. But this strength is also built on our readiness to take firm countermeasures. All instruments are on the table.”
“Rather than fixing the rules that many U.S. trading partners admittedly took advantage of to their own benefit, Trump has chosen to blow up the system governing international trade,” Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University, told The New York Times.
The first signs of rebellion emerged in the Senate, where Democrats were joined by four GOP senators, Rand Paul, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and former majority leader Mitch McConnell to pass a bill voiding Trump’s use of emergency powers to place tariffs on Canada. “Tariffs are a terrible mistake,” Sen. Paul said ahead of the vote. “They don’t work. They will lead to higher prices.” The bill may die in the House or, as many suspect, Trump may just lift tariffs piecemeal, by whim.
It’s that uncertainty that is bolstering fears of a recession.
None of this comes as a surprise to the brains at the world’s most successful investment bank, Goldman Sachs. In a research note distributed this week, Goldman said the prospect of a trade war fueled by Trump’s tariffs has nearly doubled the chance of a U.S. recession to 35%, from its previous 20% probability. The bank also said it expects inflation to rise to 3.5%, GDP growth to drop to 1%, and unemployment to hit 4.5%, while interests rates could drop to 3.5%–3.75%. Just a week after Trump’s election, Goldman forecast GDP to grow by 2.7% in 2025.
JPMorganChase says the tariffs amount to a $400 billion tax increase, the largest since 1968, when Lyndon Johnson was president. Prices will rise by 1% to 1.5% this year, the bank said, adding that “the resulting hit to purchasing power could take real disposable personal income growth in the second and third quarters into negative territory.”
EY chief economist Gregory Daco says the tariffs will create stagflation—when the economy shrinks or stays stuck, but prices rise—dragging GDP growth down by a massive 1 percentage point in 2025, and a further 0.4% in 2026, while pushing inflation up by a percentage point. That may sound a bit abstract, but as Daco noted: “For the median household, this would represent an annual income loss of $690 while for families in the bottom quintile the loss would surpass $1,000.”
Never before has an hour of Presidential rhetoric cost so many people so much. Markets continue to move after my previous tweet. The best estimate of the loss from tariff policy is now is closer to $30 trillion or $300,000 per family of four.
— Lawrence H. Summers (@LHSummers) April 3, 2025One company that will get slammed by Trump’s tariffs is Harley Davidson. The iconic U.S. motorbike maker would see the cost of its basic Road Glide touring model nearly quintuple in some European countries. Already, the $28,000 bike costs $77,000 in Denmark, when the country’s 25% value-added tax and 150% luxury tax are added. Tariffs imposed by the EU would bring the price of the road glide to $124,000, The Wall Street Journal reported. To preserve its home market, Harley wants hefty tariffs on imported motorcycles.
One of the oddest tariff targets was the Heard and McDonald Islands, remote volcanic islands that belong to Australia and are home to macaroni penguins, Antarctic fur seals and the endangered black-browed albatross—but no humans.
So how did Trump come up with the tariff numbers? Financial writer James Surowiecki figured it out: The White House took the trade deficit that America runs with a nation and divided it by the value of the exports that country sent into the United States. Then, because Trump said he was being “kind,” that number was cut in half.
Just figured out where these fake tariff rates come from. They didn't actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers, as they say they did. Instead, for every country, they just took our trade deficit with that country and divided it by the country's exports to us.
So we… https://t.co/PBjF8xmcuv
Ultimately, it’s hard to know how seriously to take the Trump tariffs. Are they just for show, and will genuflection bring them to an end?
The Usual SuspectsI have asked the @FCC’s Enforcement Bureau to open an investigation into Disney & ABC.
While Disney started as an iconic American company, it recently went all in on DEI.
I am concerned that their DEI practices may violate FCC prohibitions on invidious forms of discrimination. pic.twitter.com/E31QwwFcxA
What do you think of Big Business This Week? Tell us how you really feel in this survey!
TrumplandiaGet Big Business This Week in your inbox every week—and read it before everybody else! Sign up today.
Elon’s World