In this episode, we look at the actuarial principles that make models safer: parallel modeling, small data with provenance, and real-time human supervision. To help us, long-time insurtech and startup advisor David Sandberg, FSA, MAAA, CERA, joins us to share more about his actuarial expertise in data management and AI.

We also challenge the hype around AI by reframing it as a prediction machine and putting human judgment at the beginning, middle, and end. By the end, you might think about “human-in-the-loop” in a whole new way.

• Actuarial valuation debates and why parallel models win
• AI’s real value: enhance and accelerate the growth of human capital
• Transparency, accountability, and enforceable standards
• Prediction versus decision and learning from actual-to-expected
• Small data as interpretable, traceable fuel for insight
• Drift, regime shifts, and limits of regression and LLMs
• Mapping decisions, setting risk appetite, and enterprise risk management (ERM) for AI
• Where humans belong: the beginning, middle, and end of the system
• Agentic AI complexity versus validated end-to-end systems
• Training judgment with tools that force critique and citation

Cultural references:

• Foundation, AppleTV
• The Feeling of Power, Isaac Asimov
• Player Piano, Kurt Vonnegut

For more information, see Actuarial and data science: Bridging the gap.

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