230 - Biofuel displacing diesel | Kunal Patel from the Dallas Fed

Biofuels are displacing petroleum-based distillate fuel oil consumption on the West Coasthttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57040 - renewable diesel = diesel made from  - biodiesel used as well - petroleum distillate consumption down on west coast in 2022 but biodiesel consumption up - unique to west coast NATIONAL AVERAGE SEES LITTLE CHANGE, GASOLINE DEMAND PLUMMETS AFTER SURGING FOR JULY 4 - Gasoline demand soared on July 4 but declined since then - Gasoline prices went down going into July 4 but have basically remained stable since then - "Implied gasoline demand, a proxy for retail demand, unsurprisingly jumped to 9.6 million barrels as motorists hit the road for July 4." - "gasoline inventories fell 2.5 million barrels"  Oil dips on Chinese and U.S. data, but OPEC+ cuts limit fall https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-eases-ahead-china-us-data-opec-cuts-support-market-2023-07-10/ - Lots of Chinese data coming out later this week - Will the market tighten in H2 2023? China's economy will turn around at some point, but will it be this year?  - China's trade with US and Europe is down but is Russia really a replacement? Depends who you ask. Iran Seizes Commercial Tanker in Persian Gulf https://www.voanews.com/a/iran-seizes-commercial-tanker-in-persian-gulf-/7170938.html - Military incident in Persian Gulf including US Navy firing on Iranian vessels did not cause oil market to jump at all - Do people not care about tanker security in the Persian Gulf anymore? Special Guest Kunal Patel from the Dallas Fed Q2 Energy Survey https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2023/2302 - price forecasts of producers are different from other industries. Think price will be in $80s by end of year - credit conditions: 24% of small E&Ps; said credit conditions are having a major impact. Large E&Ps; have more sources of credit. - costs in the oilfield: the larger the firm you are, the more pricing power you have, both with services and materials - larger firms can take advantage to get lower costs but smaller E&Ps; are still facing higher costs - potential decreases in cost in H2 - Contracts with rigs and suppliers are the issue - if firms locked in contracts in 2022 then prices are higher even if prices are going down now. When the contracts were signed is driving the costs - Oil producers in the US think that global oil consumption has slightly underperformed this year what they expected at the start of the year.

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