---
client: ea_forum
project_id: red_team
feed_id: ai, ai_safety, ai_safety__forecasting
narrator: pw
qa: mds
narrator_time: 3h15m
qa_time: 1h30m
---

In this note I’ll summarize the bio-anchors report, describe my initial reactions to it, and take a closer look at two disagreements that I have with background assumptions used by (readers of) the report.

This report attempts to forecast the year when the amount of compute required to train a transformative AI (TAI) model will first become available, as the year when a forecast for the amount of compute required to train TAI in a given year will intersect a forecast for the amount of compute that will be available for a training run of a single project in a given year.

Original article:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_GqOrCo29qKly1z48-mR86IV7TUDfzaEXxD3lGFQ8Wk/edit#

Narrated for the Effective Altruism Forum by TYPE III AUDIO.

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