Aha Bitcoin

Bitcoin Daily December 18, 2024

Listen Later

Key Topics:

1. Bitcoin ETF Surge and Market Dominance:

  • Bitcoin ETFs Overtake Gold: Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have surpassed gold ETFs in total assets within a year of their launch, reaching a combined $129.3 billion compared to gold ETFs' $128.9 billion. This highlights Bitcoin’s rapid rise in the ETF market.
  • "Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States have now eclipsed gold ETFs in total assets, achieving this feat in less than a year of their launch."
  • BlackRock’s IBIT Dominance: BlackRock's IBIT ETF is a major player, managing $54 billion in assets. Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC also hold significant assets, approximately $22 billion each.
  • Significant Inflows: Bitcoin ETFs experienced a combined inflow of $636.9 million, with BlackRock's IBIT leading with $418.2 million.
    • Institutional Demand: These flows highlight the growing institutional demand for Bitcoin through accessible investment vehicles.

      • 2. Bitcoin Price Surges and Market Momentum:

      • New All-Time Highs: Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $107,700 on Dec. 16. Other sources mention reaching $106,000. The volatility of BTC is highlighted by the fact that the prices quoted are not consistently in agreement, indicating high fluctuation.
      • Strong Market Momentum: Bitcoin has maintained a strong upward trajectory, even after surpassing $100,000.
        • High Liquidation Levels: The significant price increases are also causing high liquidations.
          • Bitcoin to Gold Ratio: The ratio of Bitcoin to gold hit a new all-time high, reaching 40 gold ounces per BTC, indicating increased purchasing power relative to gold. Some analysts predict this will continue to grow.

            • 3. Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve Asset:

            • Governmental Interest: There is increasing interest in governments adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
            • Texas Bill: Texas has introduced a bill to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which would involve holding Bitcoin in cold storage and accepting tax payments in Bitcoin.
            • Potential Trump Executive Order: There are speculations that a potential Trump executive order could designate Bitcoin as a US reserve asset, which could lead to significant demand and price appreciation. The purchase of a Bitcoin reserve by the US government could remove 5% of the supply from circulation.
            • Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: The article "Satoshi Action Fund reveals potential executive order draft to establish US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve" suggests this idea has advanced to the draft stage.
            • BlackRock Recommendation: BlackRock is recommending investors allocate 1-2% of their portfolios to Bitcoin.

              • 4. Bitcoin Mining Dynamics:

              • Increased Mining Difficulty: Bitcoin mining difficulty has surged to a new historic high, indicating increased competition for mining rewards.
                • Slipping Miner Reserves: Despite this increase in difficulty, miners' reserves have decreased by 4.74% year-over-year, which suggests that miners are selling off some of their holdings.

                  • 5. Price Predictions and Market Outlook:

                  • Various Predictions: There are various price predictions for Bitcoin, with some suggesting $180,000 by Q1 2025, $290,000 by early 2026, and potentially much higher figures.
                  • Stock-to-Flow Model: The stock-to-flow model predicts Bitcoin to potentially exceed $800,000 by the end of 2025.
                  • Bitfinex Analysis: Bitfinex projects Bitcoin peaking at $290,000 in early 2026, based on historical patterns.
                    • Range of Peak Predictions: Most sources predicted a peak in the $160,000 to $290,000 range with the possibility of a high of $339,000.
                    • "if Bitcoin follows the 2021 trajectory, it could increase 40% above its moving averages and reach a price of around $339,000."

                      • 6. Fair Value Accounting and Regulatory Developments

                      • FASB Adoption: The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has officially adopted fair value accounting rules for Bitcoin, effective for fiscal years beginning after December 15, 2024. This could facilitate wider adoption of Bitcoin as a treasury asset by corporations.
                        • ...more
                        View all episodesView all episodes
                        Download on the App Store
                        Aha BitcoinBy Stratus.io