December 19, 2024

Bitcoin Daily: December 19, 2024

19 minutes

Bitcoin Trends:

I. Bitcoin as a Treasury Asset & Inflation Hedge:

Increased Corporate Adoption: Companies like MicroStrategy, MARA, and Hut 8 are significantly increasing their Bitcoin holdings.

MARA acquired 15,574 BTC for ~$1.53 billion, bringing its total holdings to 44,394 BTC.

Hut 8 acquired 990 BTC, totaling 10,096 BTC.

MicroStrategy now holds 439,000 BTC.

Some analysts suggest smaller companies may follow the MicroStrategy model.

Bitcoin as a Hedge:Ohio is considering creating a state-backed Bitcoin reserve, with similar initiatives in Texas and Pennsylvania.

Representative Derek Merrin stated that Bitcoin can act as "a vehicle to supplement our state’s portfolio and preserve public funds from losing value" as the dollar is devalued.

These moves reflect a belief that Bitcoin can serve as a safeguard against traditional currency devaluation.

Bitcoin Outperforming Gold:

Bitcoin's market cap has reached 14% of gold's market cap, marking an all-time high.

Bitcoin ETFs' AUM ($129B) have surpassed gold ETFs ($128B). As K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde noted, "Gold, with a 20-year head start, has been flipped by bitcoin".

II. Bitcoin Mining & the AI Revolution:

Data Center Demand: The rise of AI is creating unprecedented demand for high-capacity computing facilities, with traditional data centers struggling to meet power demands.

Bitcoin Miners' Advantage: Bitcoin miners are uniquely positioned to fill this gap due to their access to:

Large-scale, power-ready facilities

Substantial power capacities and infrastructure

Experience in large-scale construction and data center management.

Strategic Transition:Miners can increase value by transitioning to AI/HPC markets, leveraging the valuation discrepancy between mining (6-12x EV/EBITDA) and data center operators (20-25x EV/EBITDA). According to the Galaxy report, "Miners can unlock significant value by transitioning into AI/HPC markets, by arbitraging their 6-12x EV/EBITDA valuation with current 20-25x multiples typical of leading data center operators."

The Future of Bitcoin Mining:Miners will focus on maximizing the value of energy access, with AI data centers presenting the most profitable route.

Mining will be pushed to more remote areas, focusing on monetizing stranded power. "We expect a larger portion of Bitcoin mining will be pushed to the boundaries to monetize stranded power capacity—especially in remote regions in the US and internationally in countries like Ethiopia, Paraguay, and other emerging markets where cheap, excess energy is abundant."

Bitcoin mining can act as a "strategic bridge" for infrastructure investments, offering returns while waiting for long-term energy use cases to materialize.

III. Bitcoin's Resilience to Quantum Computing:

Theoretical Threats: Quantum computing could potentially compromise Bitcoin's security through Shor’s Algorithm (breaking ECDSA) and Grover’s Algorithm (reducing SHA-256 security).

Current Reality: Quantum computers are "decades" away from posing a significant threat.

Current quantum computers have around 100 qubits, while cracking ECDSA within an hour would require ~317 million qubits.

According to physicist Sabine Hossenfelder, practical quantum computing applications are "about 1 million qubits away."

Bitcoin's Built-in Advantages:Difficulty Adjustment: The network adapts to maintain consistent block times.

Public Key Security: Not revealing public keys unless spending funds.

Hash-Obfuscated Addresses: Adding another layer of protection against quantum threats.

Adaptability: Bitcoin can upgrade to more quantum-resistant algorithms if needed. As Satoshi Nakamoto suggested in 2010, "the network could transition to more quantum-resistant algorithms should the need arise."

Broader Implications: Quantum computing is a threat to all cryptographic systems, not just Bitcoin, driving global research into post-quantum cryptography.

...more

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By Stratus.io