Bite-Sized Big Idea - A Peek Around The Corner (brief)

The US has ratified a travel ban on several countries and it appears, by extension, to be making it tougher for students from other countries to feel welcome in the US. For example, the emerging trade war with China: Chinese authorities are publicly considering popping tariffs on students who want to study in the United States. Also, it appears the denial of US postgraduate Working Visas are making it tougher for grads to stay on and work at externships.

If there indeed is a contraction of international students, how will this play out?

Demographic Chasm

Colleges have used international students as a ‘demographic patch’ to backfill in the under 20-year-old demographic. That patch could rapidly recede, and schools that rely on 17 to 20-year-old international students could be walking into a mess. Whats plan C for them?

Britannia Rules the Seas

Commonwealth countries are and will be sopping up the international student market left from the US, continuing to build on their high-quality and welcoming brand. For example, as I understand it, most Commonwealth countries have liberal post graduate Working Visas for International Canadian grads.

How might this play out?

US schools with declining international enrollments could look for ways to fill the enrollment void by using more aggressive, metric-driven Enrollment Management tactics. They will begin to push on the market share traditionally held by Proprietary Schools. Some schools like Royal Roads University have exported a campus to China. How will this play out? Should schools who need the Gen Z cohort consider shrinking their school? Lower expectations?

The travel ban ratification will have ripples everywhere within North American EDU. It’s best if possible to get ahead of this possible trend.

In my personal opinion.

Thoughts?

Gregg Meiklejohn

Co-founder, Enrollment Resources