Unchained

Bits + Bips: Why a U.S. Recession May Be Coming — And Still Isn’t Priced In - Ep. 814

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The markets are rattled. Tariffs are rising. Investors are pulling back.

In this week’s Bits + Bips, the panel digs into what’s really driving the selloff, why the Fed may be stuck, and how Trump’s tariff logic could trigger deeper economic shocks than anyone expects.

Plus:

  • Whether Bitcoin becomes a safe haven
  • What makes this downturn different from 2022 and 2020
  • Why a potential recession still isn’t priced in
  • Whether Congress can take the tariff button away from Trump

    • And yes, Ram coins a new term: FAFO tariffs 😀

    Sponsors:

    • Bitwise

      • Hosts:
      • James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence
      • Alex Kruger, Founder of Asgard
      • Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida
      • Noelle Acheson, Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter 
        Links

        Tariffs:

        • Recent coverage of Unchained on the economy and tariffs: 
        • Arthur Hayes on Why Tariffs Will Be Good for Bitcoin and Crypto
        • Bits + Bips: Trump’s Tariffs Are Causing Mayhem, But Will They Revive U.S. Manufacturing?
        • Trump Tariffs Sink Crypto, BlackRock Pumps Bitcoin’s Bags
        • Why Trump-Induced Stagflation Could Finally Make Bitcoin a Safe Haven
        • In Market Crash, What Should You Buy? Crypto VCs Are Making These Bets

          • 10-year yield and the Fed

          • CNBC: 10-year Treasury yield rises back above 4% despite tariff threat to growth
          • Reuters: No Fed 'put' when it's unclear which way the economy may pivot


            • 2008 Market Crash

            • Federal Reserve: The Great Recession and Its Aftermath
            • CNN: Bailout Plan Rejected - Supporters Scramble


              Can Congress Step In?

              • Economist: How Donald Trump’s Tariffs Will Probably Fare in Court
              • Politico: Trump Threatens Veto of Bill to Curb Tariff Power


                • Timestamps:

                👋 0:00 Intro

                📉 3:30 Why this selloff feels nothing like 2022 or 2020

                🪞 8:41 Why buying signals could be a mirage

                🤔 11:28 Is the bear market already priced in? What investors are missing.

                🏚️ 14:35 Could this turn into a fall “2008 scenario”? And what real buyers are doing now

                🧮 25:57 Why Trump’s tariff math is wrong, and how it will create problems for the administration

                📈 36:15 Why Trump wants the 10-year yield down, and why he’s failing

                🛟 39:59 What counts as a safe haven right now, and is bitcoin one of them?

                🏦 52:42 Can the Fed stand up to Trump’s pressure to cut rates?

                🚫 57:56 Trump thinks that the trade deficit is a profit/loss statement. Why that’s a problem. 

                ⚖️ 1:01:19 Can Congress pull Trump’s tariff authority?

                💵 1:06:32 Can stablecoins save dollar demand?

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                UnchainedBy Laura Shin