The recent collision between a Black Hawk helicopter and a commercial airliner near Washington, D.C., has sent shockwaves through the aviation community and beyond. This tragic event, resulting in the loss of numerous lives, raises serious questions about the safety of our skies, particularly in high-traffic, restricted airspaces like that around the nation’s capital. On a recent episode of The Andy Parrish Show: I’m Right – Deal with It!, I spoke with Colonel Big Joe, a highly experienced Marine pilot, to unpack the complexities of this incident and delve into some of the critical factors that may have contributed to it.

The airspace around Washington, D.C., is one of the most heavily regulated in the United States. Since 9/11, the FAA has implemented an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), which requires specific qualifications, training, and communication protocols for all aircraft operating within it. Pilots must be meticulous about who they talk to and the codes they use on their transponders. Failure to comply can result in flight violations, potentially leading to being intercepted and even forced to land.

Military helicopters, such as the Black Hawk involved in the collision, frequently operate in the DC area for training and transport. These flights, often conducted at low levels along the Potomac River, serve to maintain pilot proficiency with navigation, checkpoints, and obstacles. Many of these training flights are done at night, often using night vision goggles (NVGs). While NVGs enhance visibility in the dark, they also present challenges, notably the loss of depth perception. Pilots must train to compensate for this limitation, scanning and moving their heads constantly to create a sense of depth.

The seemingly improbable nature of this collision is worth examining. I asked mathematicians and AIs to calculate the odds of a collision between a Black Hawk and a commercial airliner, and all returned with the same answer – that it was not probable. Colonel Big Joe compared the situation to a complicated math word problem, noting how even the slightest change in conditions, such as a small change in speed or direction, can lead to unforeseen outcomes.

Both commercial airliners and military aircraft are equipped with various technologies intended to enhance safety, but these are not foolproof. Commercial airliners use ADS-B technology to track aircraft. However, there can be a significant time delay in the information displayed on screens, sometimes by as much as 30 seconds, or a mile to a mile and a half. This delay can be critical in situations where aircraft are moving at high speeds. Additionally, while low altitude warning systems are present in some aircraft, there is not always a system to warn of an aircraft coming directly at you.

The investigation into the collision will thoroughly examine the human factors involved. Investigators will scrutinize the pilots’ personal lives, including any potential stressors like divorce, substance use, or medications. Air traffic controller recordings and flight data will also be examined to determine whether there were any errors in communication or instructions.

Colonel Big Joe recounted a previous incident in the mid-90s where two Marine helicopters collided during night vision goggle training. This underscores the risks inherent in complex training missions, even with experienced pilots. We also discussed the “Miracle on the Hudson,” where Captain Sully Sullenberger’s experience and instinct led to a successful water landing despite the checklist telling him to try for the airport. Checklists are good, but experience is better, and pilots are rigorously trained for these kinds of situations.

The collision of the Black Hawk and commercial airliner is a complex event with multiple contributing factors. This discussion offers valuable insights into the challenges of operating in controlled airspace, the limitations of technology, and the critical role of both training and experience. It underscores the need for a thorough investigation and the potential for changes that will help to ensure the safety of air travel for everyone.