Bridgewater's Greg Jensen on Why Markets Have Further to FallInflation is at its highest in four decades and the Federal Reserve is raising rates at the fastest pace since 2000. Inflation and a slowing economy are a toxic mix for markets, and in recent days we've seen both stocks and bonds hit hard. So how do you actually invest in this type of macro environment, or model big themes like supply chain disruption and deglobalization? On this episode, we speak with Greg Jensen, the co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, about how he's thinking about the risks of inflation and slower growth, what it all means for markets, and how Bridgewater is preparing for it. As he puts it, market prices are still too optimistic relative to the secular change that's taking place within them.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bridgewater's Greg Jensen on Why Markets Have Further to Fall

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Pierre Andurand made his name trading oil and other energy-related assets, but wild swings in the price of cocoa have recently lured the founder of Andurand Capital Management into a new market. He bet on cocoa earlier this year and saw the trade pay off as the price of the beans surged to a record $12,000 a ton. Prices have since fallen back to around $7,800, but Andurand sees scope for further upside as extreme deficits in the building blocks of chocolate loom. In this episode, we talk about how he entered the cocoa market, how he formed his investment thesis, and potential interest in other soft commodities, like coffee and orange juice. We also talk about copper, where a similar story of structural shortages is now playing out in prices. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Pierre Andurand Says the World Could Run Out of Cocoa Inventories

This week, we'll get fresh inflation data in the US, which will inevitably feed into the Federal Reserve's future decisions to raise, hold or lower benchmark interest rates. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is preparing to announce new tariffs aimed at curbing Chinese imports in key industries, including electric vehicles, batteries and solar cells. On this episode, we speak to Odd Lots favorite Viktor Shvets. The Macquarie strategist has a way of threading the needle between major global events and reaching back into history to provide context for our current macroeconomic moment. He describes the US central bank as a prisoner of its own policies, namely data dependency and the "dot plot." Meanwhile, China faces "massive" overcapacity problems as more and more countries put up barriers to its exports. We also talk about generational shifts and what they mean for investment. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Viktor Shvets on How the Fed Has Become a Prisoner of Its Own Making

There's a lot going on in currency markets and global trade at the moment. The Japanese yen has been falling, even after authorities seemed to intervene to try to arrest the slide. Meanwhile, weakness in the Chinese yuan has helped boost that country's exports and is fueling talk of a new "China Shock" for the rest of the world, even as its economy continues to grapple with slower economic growth and excess capacity. In this episode of Lots More, we bring back Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to walk us through these developments, along with his new paper, "Power and Financial Interdependence." We also talk about what China's excavator exports can tell us about its economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lots More With Brad Setser on the Yen, a New China Shock and Excavators

Hugh Hendry says the world is brimming with risks right now, from Chinese deflation, to the strength of the US dollar, to unrealized losses in US Treasuries held by the bank. In the new episode of the podcast, we speak with the former manager of the Eclectica hedge fund, who now writes and operates under the Acid Capitalist branding. Hendry, who now resides in St. Bart's, says that the most important story in the world, and for as long as he's been in markets, has been the rise of China, which he sees as inflating asset values all around the world. Specifically, he sees a broken model, in which the country's GDP grows rapidly, but domestic investments and household income don't keep up. He warns of a risk of a yuan devaluation, as the country seeks to maintain its export drive which, he warns would create "Mad Max" deflation. He also talks about the "terrifying" drop in the Japanese yen, and the unusual situation by which the US is one of the world's growth leaders.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hugh Hendry on the "Terrifying" Yen Move, and Risk of "Mad Max" Deflation

The Federal Reserve has a lot of official statistics it can look at to try and gauge the state of the overall economy. But there's also room for incorporating on-the-ground anecdotes and real-time color. When it comes to collecting this kind of information, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin might be the biggest road warrior on the FOMC. In mid-April, Odd Lots tagged alongside Barkin as he undertook one of his many trips around his district, speaking to local businesses about what they're seeing in terms of inflation, consumer demand, and the labor market. We traveled with him to North Carolina, making stops in Mount Airy, Winston-Salem and Yadkinville, to better understand what it is that a regional Fed president actually does when he's collecting info on the ground, and how it informs his thinking. It's a rare inside look at the day-to-day work of a Fed president. In this episode, you'll learn what kind of questions Barkin is asking businesses. And you'll learn about some local businesses themselves — everything from carport manufacturing to producing thermal underwear to spinning yarn. We also take a look at some of the big picture challenges facing America's smaller towns, including shrinking populations, a shortage of housing, and the scarcity of essential services like childcare. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bridgewater's Greg Jensen on Why Markets Have Further to Fall

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