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BTB Hemp Podcast S02E12 | The Divorce
This episode begins in 1914.
Not in the trenches — in the architecture.
Bismarck’s alliance web. A 19-year-old with a pistol in Sarajevo. The Schlieffen Plan built on rigid mobilization assumptions. And the moment Big Ben rang in London and parts of the financial community believed the global monetary system was finished.
It wasn’t finished.
It reconfigured.
If you’ve followed this season, we’ve examined hype cycles, policy correction, claims under scrutiny, and systems that mistake motion for maturity. This episode applies that same lens to rupture moments — when one configuration ends and another begins.
Fast forward to Washington. November 12, 2025. The gavel drops. Cannabinoid definitions tighten.
In parts of the hemp industry, the reaction was immediate: doom. Contracts frozen. Inventory stranded. Collapse language everywhere.
But regulatory clarification does not destroy durable systems.
It reveals fragile ones.
If you missed the earlier episodes on course correction and structural instrumentation, revisit them. The framework compounds. And if this series is helping you see how policy stress separates narrative from architecture, support it. Independent analysis continues because disciplined operators value it.
This Podcast is 100% reader-supported. To help support my work, consider becoming a paid subscriber, the money goes towards helping me babble on and on about nothing of note.
From there, we move to John Maynard Keynes and his 1930s “beauty contest” analogy. Markets do not simply price value. They price what participants believe others will value. Second- and third-order expectation.
That dynamic fueled the cannabinoid surge. Not throughput. Not standardized contracts. Not embedded infrastructure.
Expectation.
This episode draws a hard distinction between hemp flower and hemp fiber.
One scaled on retail velocity and regulatory gray space.The other scales on contracts, processing capacity, standardized grades, and capital discipline.
They are not the same business.
Treating them as interchangeable delayed necessary separation. Now that separation is occurring.
The Divorce is not about collapse.
It is about clarity.
When configurations shift, capital reallocates. Operators either replant into structure or continue chasing expectation.
The question facing the industry is direct:
Are you planting into what others might believe — or into what you can prove?
The lesson: markets punish expectation when it lacks infrastructure.
If this conversation sharpens how you interpret regulatory rupture and market psychology, engage with it. And if it strengthens how you position your operation for what comes after separation, back the work that keeps tracing these transitions.
Get full access to Aaron Furman's Beyond the Baja Hemp Podcast at aaronfurman1.substack.com/subscribe
View all episodes
By Exploring the Relative Advantage of Hemp with Aaron FurmanThis episode begins in 1914.
Not in the trenches — in the architecture.
Bismarck’s alliance web. A 19-year-old with a pistol in Sarajevo. The Schlieffen Plan built on rigid mobilization assumptions. And the moment Big Ben rang in London and parts of the financial community believed the global monetary system was finished.
It wasn’t finished.
It reconfigured.
If you’ve followed this season, we’ve examined hype cycles, policy correction, claims under scrutiny, and systems that mistake motion for maturity. This episode applies that same lens to rupture moments — when one configuration ends and another begins.
Fast forward to Washington. November 12, 2025. The gavel drops. Cannabinoid definitions tighten.
In parts of the hemp industry, the reaction was immediate: doom. Contracts frozen. Inventory stranded. Collapse language everywhere.
But regulatory clarification does not destroy durable systems.
It reveals fragile ones.
If you missed the earlier episodes on course correction and structural instrumentation, revisit them. The framework compounds. And if this series is helping you see how policy stress separates narrative from architecture, support it. Independent analysis continues because disciplined operators value it.
This Podcast is 100% reader-supported. To help support my work, consider becoming a paid subscriber, the money goes towards helping me babble on and on about nothing of note.
From there, we move to John Maynard Keynes and his 1930s “beauty contest” analogy. Markets do not simply price value. They price what participants believe others will value. Second- and third-order expectation.
That dynamic fueled the cannabinoid surge. Not throughput. Not standardized contracts. Not embedded infrastructure.
Expectation.
This episode draws a hard distinction between hemp flower and hemp fiber.
One scaled on retail velocity and regulatory gray space.The other scales on contracts, processing capacity, standardized grades, and capital discipline.
They are not the same business.
Treating them as interchangeable delayed necessary separation. Now that separation is occurring.
The Divorce is not about collapse.
It is about clarity.
When configurations shift, capital reallocates. Operators either replant into structure or continue chasing expectation.
The question facing the industry is direct:
Are you planting into what others might believe — or into what you can prove?
The lesson: markets punish expectation when it lacks infrastructure.
If this conversation sharpens how you interpret regulatory rupture and market psychology, engage with it. And if it strengthens how you position your operation for what comes after separation, back the work that keeps tracing these transitions.
Get full access to Aaron Furman's Beyond the Baja Hemp Podcast at aaronfurman1.substack.com/subscribe