In This Episode: We sit down with Dr. Craig A. Kaplan, the PhD-wielding brains behind Predict Wall Street (and, apparently, the patron saint of retail investors everywhere). Craig walks us through 14 years in the financial trenches, building tech to turn the "dumb money" crowd into a collective force that could actually beat Wall Street at its own game—at least until the hedge funds caught the scent and crashed the party.

Brace yourself for a story that's equal parts "wisdom of crowds," collective intelligence research, and "what happens when the little guy dares to play with the big boys." If you still think your hot stock tip has a shot, prepare to have that illusion gently (okay, not-so-gently) shattered.

What We Cover:

• How Craig built Predict Wall Street out of pure force of will (and maybe a touch of ignorance-is-bliss)

• Why smart money and dumb money aren't as predictable as you think

• How to use crowd signals, sentiment, and psychology for an actual edge (no, really)

• Why everyone else told him this was "impossible" (spoiler: Nobel laureates are not always right)

• The only three real ways to make money in the stock market—and why almost everyone gets it wrong

• What collective intelligence really means when the crowd is full of both geniuses and, well... not-geniuses

Guest Bio: Dr. Craig A. Kaplan isn't your average Wall Street whisperer—he's a pioneer in collective intelligence and the founder of Predict Wall Street, the platform that gave retail investors their brief moment in the sun before the hedge funds rained on the parade. Craig's research and tech have changed how people think about market signals, crowd psychology, and "dumb money" (newsflash: it isn't always so dumb). When he's not upending financial orthodoxy, you'll find him connecting the dots between AI, data science, and what's actually possible when you trust a million random brains more than a dozen "experts."

Enjoy! This show was brought to you by Wrench.ai

Follow Dan: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danbaird/ X: https://x.com/mrdanbaird

Follow Craig:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/craigakaplan/

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Selected Links From This Episode:

• Dr. Craig Kaplan LinkedIn

• Predict Wall Street

• The Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki

People and Organizations Mentioned:

• Dr. Craig Kaplan

• Dan Baird

• TD Ameritrade

• Schwab

• NASDAQ

• "Dumb money" (sorry, retail investors—it's a Wall Street thing…)

Show Notes & Timestamps:

• The myth and math of "wisdom of crowds"

• Getting 14 years' worth of scars in fintech

• Why Wall Street's "smart money" can be its biggest liability

• How to mine "dumb" opinions for real alpha

• The limits of quant funds and why the real edge never lasts

• Financial luck, stubborn optimism, and the fine art of not giving up (even when everyone with a Nobel tells you not to bother)

• Why you should never underestimate the power of a good old-fashioned jelly bean guess