Business Extra

The war with Iran has delivered the deepest oil and gas shock in modern history, deeper than the crises of 1974 and both Gulf Wars. Yet its effect on prices and markets has been far milder than in previous episodes, the International Monetary Fund said.

For Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia department, that resilience is the result of years of economic diversification and stronger policy frameworks across the Gulf. The IMF’s latest regional outlook forecasts a contraction this year, followed by a strong rebound in 2027.

In this interview for Business Extra, Mr Azour joins The National's Editor in Chief Mina Al-Oraibi to speak about why the war’s impact has been uneven among countries in the region.

Mr Azour also explains why the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia’s investment of more than $150 billion in AI leaves them close to advanced economies in readiness. He sets out how renewed attention to geography could bring the Gulf and the Levant closer together through new trade routes to the Mediterranean.

He discusses Iran’s economy, which the IMF expects to shrink by 9 per cent amid hyperinflation and a collapsing currency. He also covers Iraq, where 80 per cent of oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz and 90 per cent of state revenue comes from oil.

The conversation also turns to Syria, where growth is expected to exceed double digits this year.

Mr Azour also looks at Lebanon that faces a war that has displaced a fifth of its population, on top of a financial collapse that is now seven years old. The interview has also covered Egypt, where inflation has fallen to 14 per cent from 50 per cent during the last external shock.

He reflects on whether AI is a bubble, and why the region can benefit from what he calls a transformative technology.

In this episode of Business Extra, recorded as part of Davos on Air at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of Global Future Leaders in Dubai, The National’s Rory Reynolds speaks to Fahad Al Gergawi, Undersecretary at the UAE Ministry of Foreign Trade.

As global trade faces growing uncertainty from geopolitical tension and supply chain disruption, the UAE continues to pursue new avenues to strengthen its position as an international trading hub.

Mr Al Gergawi discusses how the country has responded to disruption caused by the Iran war, including plans to expand alternative trade corridors and reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.

The conversation also examines the UAE’s expanding network of Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements, and how these trade deals are helping businesses access new markets, attract investment and strengthen economic resilience.

Mr Al Gergawi explains how the UAE is navigating an increasingly fragmented global trading environment, including its continuing negotiations with the European Union and efforts to forge new international partnerships. He also shares his outlook for the UAE’s economic recovery, and why long-term planning and adaptability remain central to the country’s trade strategy.

This episode was produced by The National in partnership with LIVEX.

In this episode of Business Extra from LIVEX in Abu Dhabi, guest host David Dunn is joined by Dana Awad, chief commercial officer at ICT Real Estate Development.

As Abu Dhabi continues to grow and attract new residents, businesses and investment, the conversation explores what makes a development truly liveable.

Ms Awad explains why developers need to look beyond individual buildings and consider how people will actually live, work and spend their time within a community. Beautiful architecture alone, she argues, is not enough if a development does not connect with the everyday needs of its residents.

She talks about the importance of factoring in these elements at the earliest stages of master planning, from open spaces and walkability to amenities and community infrastructure.

The discussion also looks at how individual developments fit within the wider evolution of Abu Dhabi. As the capital’s population and economy evolves, Ms Awad explains how changing lifestyles and expectations are influencing the next generation of real estate.

This episode was produced by The National in partnership with Schneider Electric.

In the second episode of a special three-part Business Extra series, guest host Shereen Abdulla is joined by Walid Sheta, Middle East and Africa president at Schneider Electric.

As power grids become increasingly digital and enabled by artificial intelligence, the people responsible for managing them need a very different set of skills. Mr Sheta explains how the traditional role of the power engineer is evolving, requiring more electrical expertise rather than mechanical skills alone.

The conversation looks at the growing demand for skilled power engineers as renewable energy and the expansion of data centres create new opportunities in the sector. It also explores how the industry can attract a new generation of talent, including more women into traditionally male-dominated STEM fields.

Mr Sheta discusses the role of education and training in preparing the next generation for these jobs, as well as how digital technology and AI can be used to create solutions for energy challenges.

The episode also looks at Schneider Electric’s approach to digitalisation and decarbonisation across the Middle East and Africa, and how its partnerships with businesses, governments and other organisations are being used to advance smart grids and access to electricity.

This episode was produced by The National in partnership with Schneider Electric.

In the first episode of a special three-part Business Extra series, host Khaled Abuljebain is joined by Manish Pant, executive vice president for international operations at Schneider Electric, before the Innovation Summit Middle East and Africa.

As populations grow, cities expand and demand for electricity rises, countries across the Global South face the challenge of building energy systems capable of supporting the next generation of economic growth.

Mr Pant explains why that challenge also presents an opportunity. With less reliance on ageing legacy infrastructure, emerging economies can adopt digital technology, intelligent grids and cleaner forms of energy as they build for the future.

The conversation explores what energy resilience means in an increasingly electrified world and how digitalisation can make electricity more visible, controllable and efficient. Mr Pant also discusses the role of AI, including how the technology can help optimise energy use as growing computing demand puts additional pressure on power systems.

The episode also looks at Schneider Electric projects in Egypt and Senegal, the role consumers can play in improving energy efficiency, and why technology developed globally needs to be adapted to the specific conditions of individual markets.

The financial cost of the Iran war is becoming clearer as according to the latest study by the Institute for Economics and Peace, the conflict is costing the global economy $2.2 trillion in annual GDP.

The US alone had spent $25 billion within two months of the war beginning, and sought a further $200 billion from Congress to continue operations. Economists estimate the long-term cost at around $1 trillion.

That cost does not stay on a balance sheet. It moves through supply chains, interest rates, insurance premiums and shipping costs until it arrives in grocery bills, fuel prices and mortgage repayments for households around the world.

In the latest episode of Business Extra, host Salim A. Essaid speaks with Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of the Institute for Economics and Peace, about how a war in the Middle East ends up affecting ordinary people, which costs hit hardest and fastest, and what $2.2 trillion back in the global economy would actually look like for the people who never had a say in the decision to go to war.

The 2026 Fifa World Cup was supposed to be a record-breaking economic windfall for the United States. But as the tournament gets under way, the numbers reveal a more complicated story.

Top-tier tickets for the final are going for more than $10,000, nearly seven times what the co-hosts' bid book originally promised. Hotel occupancy in some host cities, meanwhile, is tracking below normal summer levels. And the international tourism boom that was supposed to drive billions into local economies is being complicated by visa restrictions, geopolitical tensions and dynamic pricing that has left fans unable to afford tickets.

The contrast with Qatar 2022 is stark. When the Middle East hosted its first Fifa World Cup, football fans could attend group stage matches for a fraction of the cost, with airlines laying on extra flights and some supporters watching two games a day.

In this episode of Business Extra, The National's Kyle Fitzgerald speaks to Victor Matheson, professor of sports economics in the US, to look at the economics of this tournament, and what it means for the future of mega events, including the 2034 World Cup in Saudi Arabia.

The conversation covers why Fifa's dynamic pricing strategy may have backfired, whether the promised $30 billion economic boost will materialise, and what organisers of future tournaments need to learn from 2026.

Small and middle-sized companies (SMEs) make up more than 95 per cent of businesses in the UAE and contribute more than 60 per cent of the country’s non-oil GDP. But despite that, the UAE still has relatively few SMEs growing up to become large private companies.

Founders have been saying that starting a business is much easier than scaling one, and in some cases, even easier than closing one.

As businesses grow, they tend to encounter the same roadblocks. Access to growth financing can be difficult, delayed payments create cash flow pressure, and operational complexity can take focus away from growth. Many SMEs also struggle to compete with larger players for contracts and talent.

So, while the UAE has built a strong start-up culture, the next challenge is helping more of those businesses grow into sustainable midsized companies.

In this episode of Business Extra, host Salim A Essaid is looking at what is holding businesses back once they move beyond the start-up phase. And what needs to change for more UAE-founded companies to become long-term regional and global success stories?

He speaks with two guests approaching this challenge from very different angles. Karolos Travassaros, chief portfolio officer at the Emirates Growth Fund, who explains the concept of the missing middle and what patient, minority capital can do to help SMEs cross that gap and become national champions.

Jen Blandos, founder and chief executive of Female Fusion, a UAE-based community of women entrepreneurs, also joins to speak from 17 years of experience as a business owner in the UAE about the structural frustrations that may hold SMEs back.

Syria is becoming part of the economic conversation again.

Over the past few weeks, there has been a lot of talk about investment and reconstruction, from the first Syrian-Emirati Investment Forum to upcoming business events in Damascus for the private sector in early June, and even discussions in Washington about Syria's economic future.

UAE officials and business delegations have met the Syrian leadership, and Gulf investors are studying projects tied to logistics, housing and industrial development.

But beyond these announcements, the reality on the ground remains extremely difficult. The country is dealing with damaged infrastructure, banking restrictions and a struggling economy after more than a decade of war. Millions of Syrians still rely on humanitarian aid, and the UN's World Food Programme recently warned it is scaling back some operations due to funding shortfalls.

In this episode of Business Extra, host Salim A Essaid speaks to Jamal Almahamid, chief executive of Palmira Software House, live from Damascus, where he attended the Syrian-Emirati Investment Forum.

Mr Almahamid describes a country where the energy and optimism among investors is real, but where banking restrictions, infrastructure gaps and the need for clearer regulations mean serious investors will need patience and a long-term vision.

The UAE's decision to leave Opec is the biggest exit the organisation has faced since 1960.

As the group's third-largest producer and one of the few members with real spare capacity, the departure of the Emirates raises urgent questions about the future of global oil markets and the organisation that has shaped them for decades.

This comes at a critical moment. The Iran war is escalating, the Strait of Hormuz is under pressure and Aramco is warning that the market has already lost about one billion barrels. Analysts say it could take until well into next year for the situation to fully recover.

In this episode of Business Extra, host Salim A Essaid speaks with Amena Bakr, head of Middle East and Opec+ insights at Kpler, about what the UAE's exit means, whether other members could follow suit and whether the old Opec model still works in a more fragmented world.