Episode 10 explores the question of whether language models can forecast events with the same accuracy as human experts. The discussion centers on a new AI system that retrieves relevant information from news sources, reasons about potential outcomes, and aggregates predictions to make forecasts. This system comes close to matching the performance of crowdsourced human predictions, and in some cases, even surpasses them, suggesting that AI could play a crucial role in large-scale forecasting for decision-making in the future.

Paper: https://t.co/8AgYlfFmB1