Russia has amassed over 150,000 troops at the Ukrainian border, fuelling growing fear that Moscow plans an attack. Russian leaders deny any such plan and in recent days, the defence minister has claimed that Moscow is pulling back troops and equipment as military drills come to a close. Other reports and satellite imagery suggest, however, that in fact more are arriving. At the same time, front lines in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region separating areas held by the Ukrainian government and those held by Russia-backed separatists have seen a barrage of shelling, raising further concern that Moscow might use the violence as a pretext for military action. All this comes after an intense few weeks of diplomacy by Western leaders aimed at deterring Moscow. 

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Comfort Ero, Crisis Group’s president & CEO, are joined by Olya Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Program director, to talk about latest developments, what to make of the recent shelling on front lines in Donbas and whether there is anything more the West can do to stave off further military action by Russia. They talk through Russian demands, from a halt to NATO expansion to Ukrainian compliance with Russia’s interpretation of the Minsk agreements that aim to resolve the Donbas conflicts. They discuss Western efforts to deter Moscow and the degree of unity among Western capitals. They also talk about what a Russian invasion could look like in practice, its human toll and how Western leaders should respond. They also examine prospects for talks on the wider European security architecture if Russia does pull back. 

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ukraine regional page. 

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