Charter House Rules

Five votes in seven days: the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the RBA on Cup Day, and the US midterms. Matt Dever (Founder and CIO) and Craig Jackett (Head of IR) of Emit Capital Asset Management find the same question underneath every one of them: who pays for the power?

In this episode:

→ Around the Grounds: the Jillaroos put 124 on Wales, the Kangaroos roll on, the Jets' slide hits nine, and a Melbourne Cup trifecta for one trainer

→ Four central banks: a Fed without guidance, the long bond as Europe's real hawk, Japan's cheap money ending, and an RBA hike that sounded like a pause

→ The midterms: what 19 midterms since 1950 say about the year after, and why data centres were on the ballot

→ Energy: Brent's whiplash, Europe's empty tank, and why Asia pays ten times America for gas

→ The tech sell-off: a rotation, not a crash. A cash-flow test, not a demand test

→ The grid: record order books while the shares fell, the fast version of nuclear, and who pays to connect data centres

Charter House Rule #7: When everyone is arguing about who pays for the power, own the power.

Chapters

0:00 Welcome: five votes in seven days

0:57 Around the Grounds

5:13 The Fed: no guidance

6:55 The ECB and the long bond

8:10 The Bank of Japan

9:47 The RBA on Cup Day

12:20 Energy: the common thread

13:49 The US midterms: what history says

16:33 Data centres on the ballot

17:31 Oil: headlines vs inventory

19:23 Europe's gas and power

20:53 Asia-Pacific LNG and US gas

22:12 October's tech sell-off: rotation, not crash

23:52 Profits vs cash burn

25:12 Marvell–Lumentum and Intel

27:16 Own the bottleneck, not the crowd

28:27 Risk register: AI financing

29:34 What to take from October

32:20 Energy transition: the order books

33:38 Nuclear: the fast version

34:43 Who pays for the power

36:32 Charter House Rule #7

37:11 Three takeaways

37:43 The week ahead

emitcapitalam.com

General information only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Emit Capital portfolios may hold positions in companies mentioned. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Emit Capital Asset Management Pty Ltd, ABN 57 652 326 237, AFSL 551084.

Two central banks are on the clock, and oil has quietly put on more than 6% in a week. Matt Dever and Craig Jackett ask what this means for rates and for the northern winter ahead.

In this episode:
→ Around the Grounds: the Brewers are one win from a World Series, the Jets trade Hellebuyck, and the Jillaroos beat England 78–0
→ Markets: the index fell while the average stock rose. Plus the 5% Treasury hurdle, and why an IPO filing changes the mood more than the maths
→ Australian CPI and the RBA: is a fifth hike coming on Cup Day?
→ The Fed: hold, say little, let the dissents talk
→ Winter outlook: paper vs physical barrels, diesel as the pinch point, Asian LNG at about US$31, Europe three-quarters full, and cheap US gas vs available power
→ House view: disruption without a new loss of infrastructure, and what that means for our portfolios

Update: the ABS released the September CPI while we were taping. It rose 1.3% for the quarter and 4.3% over the year to September. The trimmed mean was 3.6%.

Charter House Rule #6: An energy shock becomes a rates problem when it reaches wages. Oil sets the headlines. Wages set the rates.

Chapters
0:00 Welcome
1:24 Around the Grounds
6:39 Markets: the 5% hurdle and AI financing
10:02 Australian CPI and the RBA
12:43 The Fed
14:32 Winter outlook: oil and diesel
17:56 Asia: LNG, coal and Australia
20:53 Europe and the UK
24:28 North America
25:12 Live: Australian CPI released
26:06 Cheap gas and the AI build-out
26:57 The wildcard: weather
27:47 House view and our portfolios
29:53 The week ahead
31:12 Charter House Rule #6
32:25 Close

emitcapitalam.com

General information only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Emit Capital portfolios may hold positions in companies mentioned. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Emit Capital Asset Management Pty Ltd, ABN 57 652 326 237, AFSL 551084.

Chip stocks fell eight days in a row, their longest losing streak since 2008. TSMC beat its forecast and raised guidance, and its shares still fell. And oil is near US$110. CJ and Matt Dever take the five events that moved markets this week, then go back to last week’s risk register to see which risks moved.

In this episode:
• Around the Grounds: the Brewers reach the World Series, plus the Bills, Wallabies, Kangaroos and Jillaroos
• The receipt on “Own the bottleneck, not the crowd”
• Producer prices, the Fed and US housing
• TSMC: beat, raise, sold
• The AI funding scare: CoreWeave, banks and the cost of money
• Oil and the Gulf
• Australian jobs, the RBA and China
• Register update and dates to watch, including 28 October

Rule of the week: Read the order book, not the ticker.

Emit Capital Asset Management Pty Ltd (AFSL 551084). General information only. Not personal advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Three risks. Six questions. One score.

A hot core CPI print, a rout in semiconductors and a record crowded trade. This week Matt Dever (Founder & CIO) and Craig Jackett (Head of Investor Relations) launch the Charter House risk register: three risks that could hurt portfolios, each run through the same six questions. What is it? How likely? What's priced? How does it hit our books? What's the tell? What are we doing?

R1 Fed policy error: the Fed tightens into a supply shock.

R2 Who's financing the AI build? The build runs out of cheap money before the revenue arrives.

R3 When the crowd moves: a positioning risk, not a thesis risk.

This week's rule: own the bottleneck, not the crowd.

In this episode:

00:00 Intro

00:17 Welcome, the Jets, the Brewers and the Celtic Tiger

02:30 The receipt: did last week's rule hold?

03:42 A new format: the risk register

04:23 Three things: semis moved, the Dow didn't, ASML surprised

06:09 Why it all hit at once

06:40 US CPI: headline in line, core hot

08:28 Banks and oil

09:13 R1: Fed policy error

10:22 Headline vs core inflation

12:31 How likely is a hike on 28 October?

13:18 Is it priced?

14:15 The RBA and Melbourne Cup Day

16:22 The tell, and what we're doing

17:44 R2: Who's financing the AI build?

21:50 Private credit redemptions

23:51 What the US banks told us

25:12 R3: When the crowd moves

27:15 Are we part of the crowd?

29:26 Buying when others are forced to sell

31:00 The playbook

32:06 What would make us more relaxed

32:38 Dates to watch

33:44 This week's Charter House Rule

Emit Capital portfolios may hold positions in companies mentioned.

General advice warning: This podcast contains general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Before acting, consider whether it is appropriate for you and seek professional advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Views are those of the speakers at the time of recording and may change without notice.

Emit Capital Asset Management Pty Ltd | ABN 57 652 326 237 | AFSL 551084

emitcapitalam.com

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs with the US 10-year Treasury still above 5.25%, Brent near US$100 and a weak jobs report. So which market is right?

Matt Dever (Founder & CIO) and Craig Jackett (Head of Investor Relations) unpack why this looks more like rotation than a broad rally, why the long end of the curve is still under pressure, what oil, gas and European power are signalling, and why AI is fast becoming an electricity story, from the Google–Constellation nuclear deal to FERC, PJM and who pays for the grid.

This week's rule: high yields are a tax, not a verdict.

In this episode:

00:00 Intro

00:18 Welcome, the Red Sox and Canadian Dave's Winnipeg Jets

02:41 This week's agenda

02:50 Macro: record highs with yields above 5.25%

04:18 Broad rally or rotation?

04:59 Weak payrolls and the long end

06:21 Headwind or wrecking ball?

07:26 The macro conclusion

07:46 Energy: Brent, WTI, gas and German power

08:38 Are inventory releases enough?

09:38 What it means for energy transition portfolios

10:40 AI is becoming an electricity story

11:52 The Google–Constellation nuclear deal

13:03 FERC, PJM and who pays for the grid

14:12 Bloom Energy and Vertiv

15:20 Nvidia chip pricing: slowdown or generation shift?

16:41 Our portfolio response

17:33 Framing the energy transition portfolio

18:29 What would make us cut exposure

19:11 The investment committee verdict

19:55 This week's Charter House Rule

Emit Capital portfolios may hold positions in companies mentioned.

General advice warning: This podcast contains general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Before acting, consider whether it is appropriate for you and seek professional advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Views are those of the speakers at the time of recording and may change without notice.

Emit Capital Asset Management Pty Ltd | ABN 57 652 326 237 | AFSL 551084

emitcapitalam.com

Last week we set four tripwires: the 10-year Treasury above 5.25%, high-yield credit through 300 basis points, dealer gamma turning negative, and Brent back toward US$110. We said one is noise, two is a warning, and three is a regime change. This week, three tripped.

Matt Dever (Founder & CIO) and Craig Jackett (Head of Investor Relations) explain why a calm-looking S&P 500 is hiding a shift in regime, what oil and gas markets are really signalling across the US, Europe and Asia-Pacific, and what it all means for AI infrastructure and energy transition portfolios.

This week's rule: when three tripwires trip, stop forecasting and start managing.

In this episode:

00:00 Cold open: the tripwire scorecard

00:34 Welcome, plus the grand final and the Red Sox

02:44 Why a quiet S&P is a regime change

03:37 Rates: the 10-year through 5.25%

04:52 Credit through 300bp

06:10 Gamma: the market splits

07:30 Earnings vs credit, and Mike Wilson's 7,100

09:12 Oil: SPR release, Saudi pipeline, Iran talks

10:21 The Brent futures curve

11:17 How long does it last? HSBC vs EIA

12:27 Gas: US, UK and Europe

14:11 Australia's gas reservation and Asian LNG

15:08 The energy portfolio takeaway

15:52 AI: OpenAI, Anthropic and the numbers

16:49 AI governance and the Medicare incident

19:20 Who pays for the AI build-out?

20:19 Compute data

21:23 ABB and Australian data-centre policy

22:22 How Emit is positioned in AI

23:09 Energy transition: credit, grids, energy security

24:42 Who benefits

27:04 This week's Charter House Rule

Emit Capital portfolios may hold positions in companies mentioned.

General advice warning: This podcast contains general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Before acting, consider whether it is appropriate for you and seek professional advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Views are those of the speakers at the time of recording and may change without notice.

Emit Capital Asset Management Pty Ltd | ABN 57 652 326 237 | AFSL 551084

emitcapitalam.com

Welcome to Charter House Rules, the weekly podcast from Emit Capital Asset Management, recorded at Charter House, Bank Place, Melbourne. We look beyond the headlines to understand what is really driving markets and what it means for portfolio risk.

In Episode 1, Craig Jackett (Head of Investor Relations) and Matt Dever (Founder & CIO) unpack a week where oil broke below US$100, AI leaders pushed the Nasdaq 100 to new highs and volatility compressed, while central banks kept tightening.

This week's rule: a falling risk premium is not the same as falling risk.

In this episode:

00:00 Intro, plus the Hawks, prelims and the Red Sox

01:39 Markets on the surface: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Brent below US$100

02:30 Fed, ECB and BoJ hikes: what the market hasn't priced

03:48 Is oil now the most important policy variable?

05:28 Treasury yields and the 5.1% risk threshold on the 10-year

06:59 Oil below US$100: a genuine macro shift, or diplomacy and winter risk?

08:48 Low index volatility, high dispersion: what's under the surface

10:05 Is the AI rally fundamentally justified? Goldman vs Jefferies

12:11 Power, not silicon, is the bottleneck for AI infrastructure

13:48 Morgan Stanley's 7,100 downside case for the S&P 500

15:11 VIX near 14: complacency, and where to sell volatility

16:51 Five portfolio decisions for the current environment

18:00 Global markets: Korea, Taiwan, China/HK and Trump–Xi

19:00 Australia: RBA rate risk, inflation and the AUD

20:31 What would end the optimism

21:03 Charter House, the Mitre Tavern and this week's rule

Emit Capital Asset Management Pty Ltd | ABN 57 652 326 237 | AFSL 551084

emitcapitalam.com

General advice warning: This podcast contains general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Before acting, consider whether it is appropriate for you and seek professional advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Views expressed are those of the speakers at the time of recording and may change without notice.

Managing Director of Emit Capital Asset Management, Matt Dever, discusses the performance of the Climate Finance Fund for the month of November 2022.