It is the beginning of the year, and people are very much concerned about what we can anticipate of the China-US relationship, politically and economically. There is no denying that both nations are gearing up for something much stronger, either the continuation of the trade war, or political disputes. No one would like to see the failures of either of the nations. How should we understand the complexity today? How much do we believe that China is going to make the first move?

Emily Conrad is a PhD candidate in international politics at Fudan University in Shanghai and a fellow with the George H.W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations. She is a former journalist, she published her first book, The Faithless? The Untold Story of the Electoral College, in 2020.