This research paper critically examines conventional lifecycle investment advice, specifically the recommendation to diversify with bonds and decrease equity exposure with age. The authors propose an alternative optimal lifetime allocation heavily weighted towards international stocks and completely excluding bonds and bills, asserting its superior performance in wealth accumulation, retirement income, capital preservation, and bequests compared to age-based stock-bond strategies and target-date funds. Their model utilizes a robust bootstrap approach with extensive global historical data to account for asset return dependencies and long investment horizons. The findings suggest that diversifying with international equities is more beneficial than bonds for long-term investors, challenging the regulatory preference for age-based asset allocation in retirement plans.

The provided text is an excerpt from a discussion analyzing Robert C. Merton's seminal 1969 paper, "Lifetime Portfolio Selection Under Uncertainty: The Continuous Time Case." The conversation explores Merton's foundational research on long-term financial planning, particularly how individuals should make investment and consumption decisions when facing uncertain future market returns. It simplifies complex mathematical concepts like continuous time models, stochastic differential equations, and utility functions to explain core principles such as the separation of investment and consumption under constant relative risk aversion. The speakers discuss the factors influencing optimal asset allocation and spending habits over a lifetime, highlighting the enduring relevance of Merton's work in modern financial theory and practical planning.

This expert strategy document addresses the national security implications of rapidly advancing artificial intelligence, particularly the anticipated emergence of superintelligence. It argues for a three-pronged framework: establishing Mutual Assured AI Malfunction (MAIM) for deterrence among major powers, implementing nonproliferation measures to prevent rogue actors from acquiring dangerous AI capabilities, and pursuing competitiveness through strategic investments and policies. The authors draw parallels with nuclear strategy, emphasizing the dual-use nature of AI and the need for proactive measures to mitigate catastrophic risks while harnessing AI's transformative potential. The paper outlines specific technical and policy recommendations within each of these strategic pillars.

This research investigates the increasing electricity costs in California, focusing on investor-owned utilities (IOUs), publicly-owned utilities (POUs), and community choice aggregators (CCAs). It identifies that IOU and CCA rates have significantly risen since 2019, while POU rates have remained relatively stable. The study points to rising transmission and distribution (T&D) expenses, especially those related to wildfire mitigation, as a primary driver for IOU and CCA cost increases. POUs, with lower wildfire risks and smaller territories, have experienced more modest cost increases. CCAs often mirror IOU prices due to shared T&D infrastructure costs and Power Charge Indifference Adjustment fees, which can negate generation cost savings. The findings highlight the divergence in electricity prices among power providers and the need for proactive grid management for affordability and reliability.

This analysis explores Netflix's strategic move into video games, examining the reasons behind this expansion beyond financial gains. The piece argues that Netflix views gaming as a key element in the broader "leisure wars," competing for consumers' attention against all forms of entertainment. It highlights significant challenges for Netflix, including technological hurdles, fierce competition from established gaming platforms, and the need for compelling exclusive content. The analysis suggests that Netflix's initial focus on casual, mobile games is a cautious, long-term strategy to build capabilities and brand recognition, minimizing immediate risks. Ball posits that the gaming industry's constant innovation and the growing interactivity of media will eventually require Netflix to embrace more interactive experiences to remain competitive.

This analysis examines Roblox's impressive scale and user engagement alongside its financial challenges. Despite boasting millions of users and substantial revenue, the platform struggles with profitability due to high costs, including app store fees, developer payouts, and research and development expenses. The author explores the discrepancy between Roblox's positive cash flow and accounting losses, attributing it to deferred revenue recognition and stock-based compensation. Several strategies are proposed to improve profitability, such as reducing app store fees, increasing user spending, expanding advertising, and exploring new 2D use cases. The article suggests that if Roblox can successfully execute these strategies, it has the potential to become a more financially sustainable and dominant media platform.

We detail YouTube's recommendation system, which leverages deep learning to personalize video suggestions for over a billion users. It addresses the challenges of scale, freshness, and noise inherent in the platform's vast and dynamic content library. The system employs a two-stage approach: candidate generation using deep neural networks to narrow down the massive video corpus, followed by a ranking model that refines the suggestions based on user and video features. Key innovations include using weighted logistic regression to optimize for expected watch time and incorporating the age of training examples to promote fresh content. The paper highlights the practical lessons learned while designing and maintaining such a large-scale recommendation system.

It's been a while since we had a bubble pop. Via the Freedom of Information Act, we are finally able to see an internal Federal Reserve Bank of New York document, nicknamed the "Doomsday Book," containing legal memoranda and agreements for handling financial crises. It serves as a resource for FRBNY lawyers, offering guidance on various emergency lending scenarios and legal issues. The book covers numerous topics, including emergency credit and payment agreements, master agreements, and legal opinions on the FRBNY's powers. Much of the content is highly confidential and protected by attorney-client privilege. The document's history and revisions reflect evolving legal landscapes and the FRBNY's responses to past financial crises.

This episode discusses a 2001 report on the U.S. housing market, focusing on the boom of the 1990s. The author highlights the significant easing of credit standards, including reduced down payments and relaxed underwriting requirements, as a major driver of growth. However, the report also emphasizes substantial risks associated with this rapid expansion, such as increased consumer debt and over-appraisal of homes. A key concern is the potential for a market correction

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