April 09, 2024

Climbing the Slope of Enlightenment (with Mike Ramsey)

39 minutes

For the inaugural episode of the new Ride AI podcast, author and analyst Ed Niedermeyer discusses the hype and disillusionment surrounding several new mobility technologies—namely autonomous vehicles—with Mike Ramsey, a vice president at Gartner. Ramsey explains the five parts of a hype cycle, including the innovation trigger and the trough of disillusionment, and provides historical analysis for where he believes autonomy is today on the road to mass adoption.

Ed and Mike discuss the concept of the five-part "hype cycle" in technology adoption: innovation trigger, peak of inflated expectations, trough of disillusionment, slope of enlightenment, and plateau of productivity.

The "slope of enlightenment" is explained as the phase where technologies become useful and start to see real-world applications.

Autonomy in vehicles, while not profitable yet, is advancing (especially in robotaxis)

Meanwhile autonomous technology is diffusing into other industries like agriculture, mining, and construction, where simple design domains allow for easier implementation.

Despite challenges, significant investment in autonomy has advanced technologies like vision systems and edge AI.

The hype surrounding autonomy is similar to that of other emerging technologies like generative AI, which may have significant impacts but will likely manifest in smaller, more practical applications initially.

Media attention tends to focus on hype, but the most significant advancements often occur quietly, requiring deliberate effort to discover and understand.

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By Oliver Bruce and Horace Dediu

4.5

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