We discuss why the "Fed trade" is back in control of crypto as a stronger dollar and hot PCE inflation push bitcoin below $60K for the first time in nearly two years. We cover why AI and equity earnings keep crowding out speculative crypto demand, and what might finally free up capital for bitcoin. We also discuss how the government's shutdown of Anthropic's Fable model reframes decentralized AI as an "access" story, why Coinbase for Agents makes the AI x crypto thesis more tangible, and how to actually trade bitcoin from here using a variety of powerful indicators.

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We discuss why oil remains the key macro pressure point for crypto as Iran-conflict escalation keeps inflation risk, the dollar, and higher-for-longer Fed expectations in focus. We cover why bitcoin’s setup has weakened below $70K, with ETF outflows, weak trend signals, softer holder profitability, and exchange inflows all pointing to a more fragile market. We also discuss Coinbase bringing regulated access to crypto options and perpetual futures to the US, why that could be a major institutional market structure unlock, and why AI continues to support equities even as crypto lags.

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Colin Basco - Quantitative Strategist, Coinbase (X: https://x.com/colin_basco)

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We cover how the April Fed minutes challenged the one-way cut narrative, why Nvidia’s strong earnings and the broader AI CapEx cycle are supporting equities without necessarily lifting crypto, and how bitcoin has absorbed meaningful ETF outflows without breaking down. We also discuss the latest roadblock for tokenized equities.

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we sit down with Lark Davis to discuss why hotter inflation data is forcing markets to rethink the Fed’s room to cut, and why that may keep crypto in a more selective regime. We cover whether Bitcoin is really an inflation hedge, why BTC dominance may stay elevated if liquidity remains tight, and how traders are weighing onchain data, technicals, and institutional ETF flows. We also discuss Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade and why better technology still needs to translate into usage and token value capture. We finish by analyzing the new Hyperliquid x Coinbase partnership and why Hyperliquid remains one of crypto’s clearest product-market-fit stories.

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In this episode, we focus on three of the biggest crypto stories of the week: Circle’s Q1 results and ARC token announcement, Bitcoin’s more nuanced setup after strong ETF demand ran into a hotter CPI print, and Ethereum’s increasingly important staking and float dynamics.

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We connect the week’s biggest macro and crypto stories, from Iran-driven oil volatility and the equities earnings backdrop to bitcoin’s increasingly important test near $80K. We discuss why rising spot ETF inflows and tighter float have made BTC’s rebound more meaningful, but not yet a confirmed regime shift, and why the short-term holder cost basis remains the key level to watch. We also examine the fallout from the Kelp DAO exploit, how AI may increase risk in DeFi, and why prediction markets have evolved from a niche crypto product into a multi-billion-dollar industry driven by sports, geopolitics, and changing user behavior.

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In this inaugural episode of the Coinbase Advanced podcast, we break down one of the most confusing macro environments in modern history as crypto sentiment snaps back amid Middle East negotiations. The conversation explores the blurring lines between risk-on and risk-off assets, the systemic security threats posed by Anthropic’s new Mythos AI model, and recent DeFi contagion events involving Kelp DAO and Aave. We also dive into the evolution of the "Everything Exchange," examining how the introduction of 24/7 equity perpetuals, commodities trading, and institutional bitcoin accumulation are fundamentally altering the market structure for active traders.

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We unpack why oil remains the key macro lens for understanding markets as renewed Iran diplomacy, elevated crude prices, stronger labor data, and sticky inflation risks continue to shape the Fed backdrop and broader risk sentiment. We discuss why Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient in this environment and how we are thinking about the market in a headline-driven regime where tactical levels matter more than long-term conviction. We also break down why Strategy’s bitcoin purchases may still matter even if they look small in aggregated flow data, particularly through momentum, liquidity, and float absorption. Finally, we explore why Hyperliquid continues to strengthen its case as a weekend macro price discovery venue through oil and precious metals perps, and why Covenant’s exit from Bittensor has become a real near-term sentiment hit for TAO without necessarily invalidating the broader decentralized AI thesis.

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We unpack the latest cross asset price action in response to surging oil prices and what elevated energy prices could mean for inflation, the Fed, and broader risk sentiment. We then explore why AI agents may become one of the most important structural themes in crypto, as autonomous software increasingly needs wallets, payments, settlement, and coordination rails to transact at scale. We also discuss Ethereum’s evolving institutional story, including why activity and liquidity may be re-centering around Ethereum L1 as the fee gap versus L2s narrows and upcoming upgrades improve the base layer’s execution capacity. Finally, we look at crypto’s deeper move into household finance through products like crypto-backed mortgages and 401(k) access, and why that could mark an important next phase in the asset class’s institutionalization.

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