Commodity Week

The October 9, 2026, broadcast of Commodity Week features host Todd Gleason leading a panel discussion with market analysts Logan Kimmel, Ellen Dearden, and Jim McCormick regarding the fallout from the day's USDA crop production and supply and demand estimates. The experts highlight the unexpectedly bearish data for the corn market, emphasizing a 2.7-bushel increase in the national yield estimate driven heavily by an 11-bushel jump in Nebraska. This revision pushed projected corn ending stocks to 1.849 billion bushels and triggered a sharp price sell-off. Conversely, the soybean outlook remained relatively neutral with a minor yield adjustment up to 53.1 bushels per acre. Despite the immediate market shock and harvest-time pressure, the panelists advise producers against panic selling. They note that underlying macroeconomic factors, including energy inflation, high diesel prices, and potential South American crop risks tied to a building El Niño, could provide longer-term price support into the winter.

Panelists
- Ellen Dearden, AgReview
- Logan Kimmel, Roach Ag
- Jim McCormick, AgMarket .net

In this edition of Commodity Week, host Todd Gleason and market analysts Dave Chatterton and Garrett Toay break down the fallout from the USDA Grain Stocks report, trade relations with China, and harvest marketing strategies. The discussion centers on the USDA's surprise addition of roughly 173 million bushels of corn to ending stocks, shifting balance sheets ahead of the next WASDE report where the panelists anticipate yields may stay steady or drift slightly lower due to quality issues in the western Corn Belt. Turning to global trade, the analysts assess China's continued tariff leverage on U.S. soybeans, the pace of its 25-million-metric-ton purchasing target, and growing export competition from Brazil and Argentina. Finally, they advise producers to leverage basis opportunities, carries, and on-farm storage—noting that farmers are largely cash-flow insulated for now—while cautioning that elevated diesel costs, strained refining capacity, and geopolitical tensions will likely maintain a tight-margin environment for the next 18 to 24 months.

Panelists
- Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com
- Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk.com

This edition of *Commodity Week*, hosted by Todd Gleason, features market analysts Arlan Suderman, Dave Chatterton, and Ted Seifried evaluating current grain marketing dynamics, harvest progress, and geopolitical trade developments. The panel examines the recent US-China summit, anticipating official details regarding China’s 25-million-metric-ton soybean commitment, proposed agricultural tariff exemptions, and a $17 billion purchase agreement. Discussion also covers yield projections, with Suderman modeling the national corn yield at 181.1 bushels per acre amidst harvest-related basis pressure and tight global shipping logistics. Chatterton highlights fuel price volatility and reminds producers of upcoming crop insurance and Farm Bill ARC/PLC deadlines. Finally, Seifried previews the September 30 USDA Grain Stocks report, projecting steady carryover figures, and advises utilizing synthetic puts to lock in profitable cash sales while maintaining upside exposure to potential early 2027 South American weather risks.

Panelists
- Arlan Suderman, StoneX
- Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing
- Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge

The September 17, 2026, edition of Commodity Week features host Todd Gleason and panelists Naomi Blohm, Mike Zuzolo, and Greg Johnson discussing early Midwest harvest yields, which indicate slightly below-average corn and strong early soybean results. The panel analyzes the extreme market volatility currently driven by tight stocks, technical trading patterns, and macroeconomic pressures, notably spiking diesel fuel prices and railroad freight rates that are significantly widening the transportation basis. Geopolitical factors, including Black Sea infrastructure attacks and a potential U.S. diesel export ban, are weighed alongside the highly anticipated U.S.-China trade negotiations involving President Trump and President Xi. The experts collectively advise agricultural producers to adopt a balanced risk management strategy, utilizing current price rallies to lock in profitable cash sales while maintaining reownership strategies to navigate continued market unpredictability.

Panelist 
 - Naomi Blohm, Total Farm Marketing 
 - Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing 
 - Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting

Panelists
 - Matt Darragh, Kpler
 - Ellen Dearden, AgReview
 - Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk

The September 11 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason of University of Illinois Extension, examines international grain logistics and the market fallout from the USDA’s September crop production and WASDE reports. Matt Darragh of Kpler begins the program by detailing the severe constriction of Black Sea export capacity caused by escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, explaining how damaged deepwater ports, war-risk premiums, and failed ceasefire negotiations have restricted a third of the world's wheat export volume and forced global buyers to seek alternatives in Australia and Argentina. Market analysts Garrett Toay of AgTraderTalk.com and Ellen Dearden of Ag Review then dissect the domestic and international balance sheets. Toay assesses the USDA’s production estimates, highlighting a historic November soybean/December corn spread that faces seasonal correction as harvest ramps up, while anticipating longer-term demand support from domestic crush and the Renewable Fuel Standard. Dearden closes the analysis with a focus on corn, evaluating a reduction in harvested acres, regional yield variations across the Midwest, European import demand following a severe drought, and pricing targets for producers managing on-farm storage versus commercial delivery.

The September 3 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, features panelists Matt Bennett, Shane Holtorf, and Sherman Newlin analyzing current agricultural market conditions. The panelists report that extreme heat is rapidly drying out corn and soybean crops across the Midwest, leading to widespread expectations that upcoming USDA yield estimates will fall due to variable weather damage throughout the season. They are not convinced the hot weather is doing anything more than drying the corn down faster. Alongside domestic crop challenges, the group highlights global market drivers, including potential Super El Niño impacts on Brazilian production, ongoing Black Sea export disruptions, and strong Chinese demand. Despite these bullish supply-and-demand factors, all three panelists advise producers to secure currently profitable prices through incremental new crop corn sales while maintaining flexibility with call options to capitalize on potential future market rallies.

Panelists
- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net - Windsor, IL
- Shane Holtorf, Logic Ag Marketing - Alta, IA
- Sherman Newlin, Zaner Ag Hedge - Hutsonville, IL

The August 27 edition of Commodity Week highlights the extreme variability of this year's corn and soybean crops, prompting panelists to urge farmers to capitalize on unexpected late-summer market strength. Analysts advise producers to execute cash sales now to secure cash flow and bin space, using call options to maintain upside potential if winter rallies occur. Moving forward, the market remains highly vulnerable to significant external risks, including the fragility of politically driven Chinese soybean purchases, the potential for Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) to undercut domestic biofuel usage, ongoing Black Sea supply disruptions, and long-term weather threats to South American production.

Panelists
 - Mike Castle, StoneX - Kansas City, MO
 - Logan Kimmel, Roach Ag - Naperville, IL
 - Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing - Morton, IL

In this August 20th edition of Commodity Week, our panel—Dave Chatterton, Brian Stark, and Greg Johnson—evaluates the market's transition from a weather-induced, supply-driven rally to one heavily dependent on post-harvest demand. With recent excessive rainfall in Central Illinois and Indiana compounding earlier moisture stress, the panel anticipates corn and soybean yields will fall short of the USDA's optimistic August estimates, keeping local crop sizes challenged but far from a total disaster. As the trade awaits final figures from the Pro Farmer crop tour, attention is shifting toward demand wildcards, notably strong U.S. export shipments favored over Black Sea logistical uncertainties, and the potential for Chinese purchasing behavior to shift amid tariff negotiations. With producers currently undersold on new crop, our experts emphasize the need to actively scout fields to assess true yield potential, manage early harvest space by moving soybeans, and execute defensive pricing strategies for bushels that cannot be stored. They also note that current price levels present a strong opportunity to lock in profitable margins not just for this fall, but into the 2027 crop year.

Panelists
 - Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing
 - Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing
 - Brian Stark, The Andersons

Panelists
- Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net
- Ted Seifried, ZanerAgHedge.com
- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com

The August 13 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, features panelists Jim McCormick, Ted Seifried, and Mike Zuzolo analyzing the latest USDA crop production and WASDE reports. The discussion centers on the USDA's adjustments to corn and soybean acreage, as well as the unexpectedly yield estimates despite adverse weather in the western Corn Belt. The panelists evaluate the significant geopolitical risks impacting the agricultural sector, particularly the disruption of Black Sea grain exports due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the tightening global supply of diesel and fertilizer linked to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Looking ahead, the experts debate the potential impact of a super El Niño on upcoming South American production.

The August 6 edition of Commodity Week features agricultural market analysis from Ellen Dearden and Naomi Blohm ahead of the upcoming USDA crop production and WASDE reports. The panelists anticipate the USDA will maintain corn and soybean yield estimates near 183 and 53 bushels per acre, respectively, while emphasizing the need to monitor how European drought conditions and South American El Niño weather patterns will impact global grain stocks. The discussion details critical technical trading thresholds for December corn and November soybeans, advising producers to employ defensive marketing strategies, while waiting for potential seasonal harvest lows. Finally, the analysts provide brief outlooks on the livestock sectors—noting strong dairy demand, stable but softening live cattle fundamentals, and a persistently weak hog market—and warn that ongoing geopolitical tensions remain a volatile risk to global agricultural trade.

Panelists
- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com
- Ellen Dearden, AgReview